DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

Morning CME Globex Update:

May soybeans were down 3 cents early Thursday with USDA set to release its Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings reports at 11 a.m. CDT. Corn and wheat were a little higher, but weekly export sales numbers were mostly bearish again. At 8 a.m. CDT, USDA said 9.8 million bushels (266,500 mt) of soybeans were sold to unknown destinations for 2017-18.

Other Markets:

Dow Jones:	Higher
U.S. Dollar Index:	Lower
Gold:	Higher
Crude Oil:	Lower

Corn:

May corn was up 2 cents early Thursday, but still near the lower end of its prices in March as USDA gets ready to reveal Prospective Plantings estimates for 2018 and Mar. 1 U.S. Grain Stocks. The planting estimate is expected to stay a little below 90.0 million acres, but Mar. 1 corn stocks are almost certain to be a new record high, thanks to last fall's big harvest and this year's slow export pace. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of corn totaled 53.3 and 54.2 million bushels respectively, a neutral-to-bearish combination that has total corn shipments down 25% in 2017-18 from a year ago. Thursday morning's weather map has heavy rain around Houston and Louisiana with a flood watch posted from Louisiana to southern Ohio. In South America, Thursday's satellite map is mostly dry with light to moderate rain chances for Brazil's corn crop while Argentina remains dry. Late Wednesday, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange kept its estimate of Argentina's corn crop unchanged at 32.0 mmt and said 18% of the corn was harvested. A surprise is always possible in Thursday's numbers, but for now the trend in May corn remains down. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.37 Wednesday, at its lowest close in a month and priced 37 cents below the May contract. In outside markets, the June U.S. dollar index is up 0.02 and Dow Jones futures are up 86 points.

Soybeans:

May soybeans were down 3 cents early, encountering light commercial selling to start the day near its lowest prices in over a month. There is plenty of anxiety around USDA's estimate of soybean acres with Dow Jones' survey expecting a record high 90.9 million acres and some fearing an even higher number. Mar. 1 soybean stocks are expected just above 2 billion bushels, which will be a new record high as this year's slow export pace fails to keep up with five consecutive years of good weather. This year's cold wet weather will give the U.S. a slow planting start, but Brazil's big harvest should keep China well-supplied through summer, even while Argentina's crops are down. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange kept its estimate of Argentina's soybean crop unchanged at 39.5 mmt (1.45 bb) and said 9% of soybeans were harvested. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of soybeans totaled 11.7 and 28.8 million bushels respectively, another bearish combination that showed no current season sales for China. Total soybean shipments are down 12% in 2017-18 from a year ago. At 8 a.m. CDT, USDA said 9.8 million bushels (266,500 mt) of soybeans were sold to unknown destinations for 2017-18. Soybean traders may get a little jumpy Thursday, waiting on these reports, but for now, the trend is down in old-crop soybeans and up in new-crop soybeans. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $9.41 Wednesday, at its lowest close in over a month and priced 77 cents below the May contract.

Wheat:

May Chicago wheat was up 3 cents and May K.C. wheat was up 2 3/4 cents early Thursday, still near their lowest prices in two months while eastern Oklahoma gets more rain. The rest of the southwestern U.S. Plains however, is expected to stay dry the next seven days with only light amounts expected in the northwestern Plains. Thursday's U.S. Drought Monitor as of Tuesday's conditions showed slight moisture improvement in Missouri and the Dakotas, while Oklahoma's Panhandle got drier. With plenty of wheat available around the world, it is no surprise that wheat exports continue to struggle. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of wheat totaled 13.0 and 12.1 million bushels respectively, another bearish week that has total wheat shipments down 9% from a year ago. Thursday's USDA reports are expected to show wheat plantings still near their lowest level in 100 years and Mar. 1 wheat stocks near a hefty 1.5 billion bushels. Wheat still has a whole season of unanswered questions ahead, but for now, the trends remain down in all three wheats. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.14 Wednesday, at its lowest close in over a month and 32 cents below the May contract.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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