DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was down 1/2 cent in the May contract and unchanged in the December. Soybeans were down 1 1/2 cents in the May contract and down 4 cents in the November. Wheat closed down 3 1/2 cents in the May Chicago contract, down 3 cents in the May Kansas City, and down 3 3/4 cents in the May Minneapolis contract. The June U.S. dollar index is up 0.75 at 89.73. June gold is down $17.60 at $1,324.40 while May silver is down 29 cents and May copper is down $0.0040. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 36 points at 23,894. May crude oil is down $0.87 at $64.38. May heating oil is down $0.0104 while May RBOB gasoline is up $0.0002 and May natural gas is down $0.017.

Corn:

May corn ended down a half-cent at $3.73 1/2 Wednesday, staying near its lowest prices in a month with USDA's Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings reports set for Thursday at 11 a.m. CDT. Dow Jones' average analyst estimate of 89.3 million corn acres, if true, would be the lowest in three years, but is still enough to produce near 15 billion bushels with help from good weather. Dow Jones' estimate of 8.71 billion bushels of corn stocks on Mar. 1 would be a new record high, if true, and would suggest first half corn use of 8.23 billion bushels, down from 8.32 billion bushels a year ago. In the meantime, Brazil's second crop of corn appears off to a good start with beneficial moisture in the forecast while Argentina remains dry. The big factor for corn, of course, is this summer's weather and so far, soil moisture is generally favorable across the Midwest with some areas of flooding concern. For now, the trend remains down in May corn. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.38 Tuesday, near its lowest close in a month and priced 36 cents below the May contract. In outside markets, the June U.S. dollar index is up 0.75, encouraged by a slight increase in the Commerce Department's estimate of real U.S. GDP and by a modest gain in the stock market on early Wednesday afternoon.

Soybeans:

May soybeans slipped 1 1/2 cents to $10.18 on light volume Wednesday, staying near their lowest prices in March while traders wait for Thursday's reports from USDA. If soybean plantings come in at Dow Jones' estimate of 90.9 million acres or less, prices may actually trade higher with relief that the number wasn't even higher, as some are fearing. On the other hand, soybean demand has struggled in 2017-18 and with exports down 12% from a year ago, there is nothing bullish about Dow Jones' estimate of 2.04 billion bushels of soybean stocks on Mar. 1. If true, soybean demand in the first half of 2017-18 would total 2.68 billion bushels, down from 2.78 billion bushels a year ago. Once the dust clears from Thursday's reports, soybeans will still be facing a big harvest from Brazil and possibly, a record high planting estimate in the U.S. From there, it is all up to weather and, so far, soil moisture is generally favorable. For now, the trend is down in old-crop soybeans and up in new-crop soybeans. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $9.42 Tuesday, its lowest close in over a month and 78 cents below the May contract.

Wheat:

May Chicago wheat ended down 3 1/2 cents and May K.C. wheat was down 3 cents at $4.61, maintaining a bearish tone in March, even though drought remains a concern in the southwestern U.S. Plains. Oklahoma had scattered showers again early Wednesday that have since moved eastward. The SRW wheat crop in the southeastern Midwest may eventually suffer from too much rain this spring and has more on the way this week, but other winter wheat areas should do fairly well. In the bigger picture, USDA noted on Tuesday that cold weather will slow winter wheat development in Europe while eastern China has favorable conditions. No significant problems outside of North America are reported yet. Thursday's USDA report is expected to show all wheat acres slightly higher in 2018, but still near its lowest planting in 100 years. The trends for all three wheats are currently down. DTN's National SRW Index closed at $4.21 Monday, at its lowest in over a month and 34 cents below the May contract. DTN's HRW Index closed at $4.23, at its lowest price in over a month.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

(CZ)

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