DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was up 1 cent in the May contract and up 1 1/4 cents in the December. Soybeans were unchanged in the May contract and up 1/2 cent in the November. Wheat closed up 2 1/4 cents in the May Chicago contract, up 5 1/2 cents in the May Kansas City and up 3 3/4 cents in the May Minneapolis contract.

The June U.S. dollar index is up 0.10 at 89.46. April gold is up $5.90 at $1,327.40 while May silver is down 2 cents and May copper is down $0.0310. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 406 points at 24,277. May crude oil is down $0.88 at $64.29. May heating oil is down $0.0122 while May RBOB gasoline is down $0.0068 and May natural gas is down $0.012.

Corn:

May corn closed up a penny at $3.76, staying near its lowest price in a month with no strong influence pushing prices either direction. Thursday's seven-day forecast anticipates heavy rains from eastern Texas and throughout the central and eastern Midwest. With temperatures on the cool side, the wet weather is expected to last at least until April and will prevent fieldwork from getting off to an early start in 2018. Traders will continue to watch corn exports to see if the market can reach USDA's aggressive goal of 2.225 billion bushels (bb) before Aug. 31 but have to wait until Friday to see last week's numbers after federal offices were closed Wednesday and early Thursday due to a winter storm. Fundamentally, corn continues to have a bearish outlook, but we don't know much about the new season yet. USDA's Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings reports will offer important clues on March 29. Technically, corn's weekly momentum is currently bearish. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.38 Wednesday, near its lowest in three weeks and priced 37 cents below the May contract. In outside markets, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was briefly down 500 points at one point and is down 406 in Thursday afternoon trade, with bearish concerns about the future of U.S. trade policy.

Soybeans:

May soybeans ended unchanged at $10.29 3/4 Thursday after trading both sides of Wednesday's close on light volume. The news from South America remains much the same this week with some chance of rain in northeastern Argentina, but mostly dry conditions still causing problems for row crops in central Argentina. Brazil's satellite map was mostly dry Thursday with some rain in northern Mato Grosso while the soybean harvest and second planting of corn continue to make good progress. Here in the U.S., most of the Midwest has good soil moisture to start the year, but some areas in the southeastern Plains will have too much moisture after more rain comes through early next week. USDA's Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings reports on March 29 are potential market movers and could set the tone for row-crop prices for the next six weeks. Until then, there are likely still a lot of bullish traders in both, corn and soybeans that are vulnerable to disappointment, should the U.S. have another good growing season in 2018. For now, the weekly momentum in soybeans and meal is bearish. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $9.51 Wednesday, near its lowest close in a month and priced 79 cents below the May contract.

Wheat:

May Chicago wheat closed up 2 1/4 cents and May Kansas City wheat was up 5 1/2 cents at $4.71 Thursday, taking back a small part of this week's loss while risk of wildfires remains high in the western end of the southwestern U.S. Plains. The seven-day forecast puts moderate-to-heavy showers as close as central Texas and on the eastern sides of Kansas and Oklahoma, but they are not expected to make much of a dent in the area of extreme drought. For the SRW wheat crop, more heavy rains are on the way to the central and eastern Midwest, a region where many areas are already too wet. Outside of the U.S., there isn't much conversation yet, but no significant problems are being reported for winter wheat crops other than a hangover of dry conditions in the Canadian Prairies. Fundamentally, the situation for world wheat remains bearish and this week's lower prices have turned trends down in both the Chicago and K.C. futures. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.20 Wednesday, near its lowest in over a month and 35 cents below the May contract. DTN's HRW index closed at $4.23, at its lowest in over a month.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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