DTN Early Word Grains
Back in the Green for the Ides of March
May corn was 1 cent higher, May soybeans were 6 cents higher, and July Kansas City (HRW) wheat was 4 cents higher.
CME Globex Recap:The grain and oilseed complex was higher early Thursday morning, gaining back some of Wednesday's losses. Spring wheat led the way, with contracts posting a solid gain. Soybeans were next as noncommercial traders looked to be defending their net-long futures holdings. Metals and energies were mostly lower, despite a slightly weaker U.S. dollar overnight. DJIA futures were showing a smaller gain than previous mornings, with traders acting a bit wary of possible follow-through selling once the Big Board opens.
OUTSIDE MARKETS:The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 248.91 points (1.0%) lower at 24,758.12, the NASDAQ Composite lost 14.20 points (0.2%) to 7,496.81, and the S&P 500 dropped 15.83 points (0.6%) to 2,749.48 Wednesday. DJIA futures were 61 points higher early Thursday morning. Asian markets closed mixed with Japan's Nikkei 225 up 26.66 points (0.1%), Hong Kong's Hang Seng gaining 106.09 points (0.3%), and China's Shanghai Composite off 0.27 point. European markets were trading mostly higher with London's FTSE 100 up 22.25 points (0.3%), Germany's DAX adding 71.85 points (0.6%), and France's CAC 40 gaining 23.66 points (0.5%). The euro was 0.0003 lower at 1.2366 while the U.S. dollar index slipped 0.05 to 89.74. March 30-year T-Bonds were 9/32 higher at 146'05 while April gold lost $1.80 to $1,323.80. Crude oil was $0.09 higher at $61.05 as Brent crude dipped $0.01 to $64.88. China's Dalian soybean and Malaysian palm oil futures were both higher overnight.
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| BULL | BEAR | ||
| 1) | Weekly export sales of corn, for the week ending Thursday, March 8 and therefore old news, are expected to be large once again. | 1) | Total marketing year shipments of corn, through the week ending Thursday, March 8 and therefore old news, are expected to still be running behind USDA's projected pace. |
| 2) | Noncommercial traders continue to defend their net-long futures holding in soybeans. | 2) | Given last week's strengthening carry in the May-to-July soybean spread, don't be surprised if there are some cancelations lurking in this week's export sales update (for the week ending Thursday, March 8). |
| 3) | The Southern Plains weather situation hasn't changed for the U.S. HRW wheat crop. | 3) | Total marketing year shipments of wheat, through Thursday, March 8, are expected to still be running behind USDA's projected pace. |
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MORE COMMODITY-SPECIFIC COMMENTSCORN Nothing has changed in corn, with daily charts for both old-crop May and new-crop December still trying to show a rollover into minor (short-term) downtrend. However, this has largely been unsuccessful as the market in general continues to uncover buying interest. Though old news upon release, some in the marketplace will pay attention to weekly export sales and shipment numbers scheduled for 7:30 am (CT). These are for the week ending Thursday, March 8 and are expected to show solid sales and weekly shipments, while marketing year total shipments continue to run behind projected pace. Overnight trade saw the carry in the May-to-July futures spread weaken, hinting at possible commercial buying interest and giving us something to watch as the day session gets under way later Thursday morning.
SOYBEANS Despite posting bearish short-term technical signals during Wednesday's sharp sell-off, soybean contracts were back to trading higher early Thursday morning. Old-crop May moved to a new low (for this move) of $10.27 overnight, technically fulfilling the definition of Wave C (third wave) of a 3-wave downtrend. However, support is pegged a bit lower, down near $10.19, with another round of selling expected either to close out this week or early next. New-crop November is showing a slightly different short-term technical pattern with its overnight low of $10.24 1/2 holding above its previous low of $10.24 1/4. Next support is pegged at $10.17 1/4 on the contract's daily chart, then $10.07 3/4. Fundamentally there is little fresh news, with weekly export sales and shipments (for the week ending Thursday, March 8) not expected to provide much trade fodder. Given the stronger carry seen in the May-to-July futures spread last week, keep an eye out for possible cancelations in this week's numbers. Also, total marketing year shipments should still be running well behind USDA's projected demand pace.
WHEAT The wheat complex was higher early Thursday morning, led by a 7-cent rally in Minneapolis spring wheat. Kansas City followed with a 4-cent gain, while Chicago was able to muster a bump of only 2 cents overnight. Technically July contracts for both Kansas City and Chicago remain in short-term downtrends on their respective daily charts, though neither has been able to drum up a great deal of selling interest. Not surprising given the ongoing dry, windy conditions seen across the bulk of the U.S. Southern Plains HRW growing area as we make our way through March. Weekly export sales and shipment numbers aren't expected to get markets overly excited, with a slower than projected total shipment pace likely to still be in place when all is said and done.
| DTN Cash | Change From | National | Contract | Change from | |
| Commodity | Index | Prev Day | Avg. Basis | Month | Prev Day |
| Corn: | $3.51 | -$0.03 | -$0.38 | May | $0.003 |
| Soybeans: | $9.53 | -$0.16 | -$0.79 | May | $0.007 |
| SRW Wheat: | $4.54 | $0.03 | -$0.35 | May | $0.003 |
| HRW Wheat: | $4.81 | $0.05 | -$0.44 | May | $0.007 |
| HRS Wheat: | $6.02 | -$0.03 | -$0.19 | May | $0.003 |
Darin Newsom can be reached at darin.newsom@dtn.com
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