DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was up 1/4 cent in the May contract and up 1/2 cent in the December. Soybeans were up 1 3/4 cents in the May contract and up 6 cents in the November. Wheat closed up 1 1/2 cents in the May Chicago contract, up 1 3/4 cents in the May Kansas City, and up 7 1/2 cents in the May Minneapolis contract. The March U.S. dollar index is down 0.14 at 89.96. April gold is down $3.10 at $1,320.90 while May silver is down 8 cents and May copper is down $0.0135. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 102 points at 25,234. April crude oil is down $0.72 at $61.32. April heating oil is down $0.0197 while April RBOB gasoline is down $0.0081 and April natural gas is up $0.053.

Corn:

May corn closed up a quarter-cent Monday, a day of quiet trading that saw prices stay near their highest level in six months. Thursday's higher 2.225 billion bushel export estimate remains a subject for debate, but received support from USDA's news that 10.0 million bushels (254,800 mt) of U.S. corn were sold to unknown destinations and another 4.2 million bushels (107,752 mt) were sold to Japan, both for 2017-18. Later Monday morning, USDA said 54.2 million bushels of corn were inspected for export last week, putting total inspections down 30% from a year ago and still a long way from USDA's new estimate for a 3% decline in exports. CFTC's report of positions as of Mar. 6 (before Thursday's WASDE report) showed noncommercial traders turned even more bullish in corn, increasing net longs from 214,492 to 320,384 -- the most since June 2016. That kind bullish attitude among speculators when the fundamental outlook for corn is neutral at best leaves corn prices vulnerable to bearish risk. For now, the trend is up in May corn. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.53 Friday, priced 37 cents below the May contract and within a cent of its July high. There were 38 delivery intentions for March corn early Monday and open interest stood at 2,686 contracts with expiration coming Wednesday. In outside markets, the March U.S. dollar index is down 0.14, still not showing any bullish benefit from Friday's bullish jobs report.

Soybeans:

May soybeans ended up 1 3/4 cents Monday, a quieter start to the week after Friday's 24 3/4 cent drop while Argentina's forecast stays mostly dry again this week. At the same time, Brazil's soybean harvest remains on schedule and the planting of the second corn crop should be doing fine. Monday morning, USDA said 33.4 million bushels of soybeans were inspected for export last week, another bearish showing that has total inspections down 12% in 2017-18 from a year ago. Argentina's drought has been the primary motive for noncommercial buying the past month, but last week's sell-off may have been a warning that the drought is losing its bullish impact. Friday's CFTC report showed noncommercials became more bullish in soybeans as of Mar. 6, increasing net longs from 155,357 to 194,877 -- the highest since July 2016. While the trend is still up in May soybeans and meal, last week's bearish change in price momentum plus a heavy position of noncommercial net longs is a new bearish concern for soybean and meal prices. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $9.60 Friday, down from its highest price in over a year and priced 79 cents below the May contract. Early Monday, there were no delivery intentions for March contracts of soybeans, 9 for meal, and 15 for bean oil.

Wheat:

May Chicago wheat ended up 1 1/2 cents and May K.C. wheat was up 1 3/4 cents at $5.22 1/4, still finding support from drought conditions in the western U.S. Plains. According to the National Weather Service in Dodge City, Kansas, the area has had no significant precipitation for 156 days -- roughly five months. The seven-day forecast has chances for moderate amounts in Nebraska, Missouri, and Arkansas, but the Texas Panhandle and western Kansas continue to miss out. Friday's CFTC report showed noncommercials in Chicago wheat turned bullish for the first time since August 2017, taking on a small position of 8,807 net longs. Commercials took advantage of spot Chicago wheat prices above $5.00 and let go of their net longs, also for the first time since August. Over the past five years, noncommercial traders have shown an uncanny ability to turn bullish at the wrong time and that may happen again, but for now, the trends in winter wheat contracts remain up. DTN's National SRW Index closed at $4.54 Friday, down from its highest price in seven months and priced 35 cents below the May contract. DTN's National HRW Index closed at $4.74, down from its highest price in over two years. Early Monday, there were no delivery intentions for March wheat and not many contracts left trading.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

(CZ)

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