DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn closed up 1 cent in the March contract and was up 3/4 cent in the December. Soybeans closed up 4 1/4 cents in the March and up 1 3/4 cents in the November. Wheat closed down 2 1/2 cents in the March Chicago, down 2 cents in the March Kansas City and down 2 cents in the March Minneapolis.

The March U.S. dollar index is up 0.05 at 90.35. February gold is up $7.10 at $1,334.30 while March silver is up $0.12 and March copper is down 0.0115. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 26 at 25,992. March crude oil is down $0.48 at $63.41. March heating oil is down $0.0018, March RBOB gasoline is down $0.0181, and March natural gas is down $0.059.

For the week:

March corn closed up 6 1/4 cents and December closed up 5 1/4 cents. March soybeans were up 16 3/4 cents in the March while the November was up 12 1/2 cents. March Chicago wheat was up 2 1/4 cents, March Kansas City wheat was up 1 1/4 cents, and March Minneapolis wheat was down 4 1/4 cents.

Corn:

March corn ended up 1 cent at $3.52 1/2 Friday and was up 6 1/4 cents on the week, a modest rebound from last Friday's new contract low. March corn futures have been under bearish pressure ever since USDA's August WASDE report came out with a higher-than-expected yield estimate. Last year's fifth consecutive big corn harvest increased USDA's estimate of U.S. ending corn stocks to 2.48 billion bushels (bb) and sent noncommercial traders to the short side of the market where they have yet to find any reason to be otherwise. There was a slight glimmer of hope for better exports in Friday's weekly report. USDA said last week's sales and shipments of corn totaled 74.3 million bushels (mb) and 26.0 mb respectively, higher sales than we have seen recently while the shipment pace is down 32% in 2017-18 from a year ago. In spite of corn's bearish fundamental outlook, the trend in March corn is sideways, helped by commercials finding attractive value at these lower prices and by domestic demand that is helping to lift cash corn prices. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.20 Thursday, priced 32 cents below the March contract and near its highest price in five months. In outside markets, the March U.S. dollar index is up 0.05 as the U.S. government approaches its shutdown deadline with no resolution as this is being typed. Outside commodities are mixed with February gold up $7.10.

Soybeans:

March soybeans closed up 4 1/4 cents at $9.77 1/4 Friday and was up 16 3/4 cents on the week. This week's gain was helped by five consecutive days of higher trading in March soybean meal as dry conditions in Argentina offer some opposition to the main bearish influence that Brazil is about to harvest a 4.0 bb soybean crop. Early Friday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of soybeans totaled 45.6 mb and 43.3 mb respectively, more sales than we saw a week ago, but the shipment pace is still down 14% from a year ago. In spite of this week's higher prices, the trend in March soybeans remains down, but the case for lower soybean prices is not as clear cut as it looked before last Friday. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $9.05 Thursday, its highest in a month and priced 68 cents below the March contract.

Wheat:

March Chicago wheat finished down 2 1/2 cents at $4.22 3/4 Friday, staying within its sideways range through winter. Early Friday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of wheat totaled 5.6 mb and 15.5 mb respectively, another bearish showing that has total U.S. wheat shipments down 6% in 2017-18 from a year ago. The lighter exports are not surprising given the high levels of winter wheat supplies in the U.S. and around the world and makes it difficult for the U.S. to trim those supplies down. It is still too early for bearish traders to show concern, but the more bullish hope heading toward spring is if the current regions of abnormally dry and drought conditions stay in place or get worse. For now, the trend in March Chicago wheat remains sideways with commercials finding value in the low-$4s. DTN's National SRW index closed at $3.95 Thursday, priced 31 cents below the March contract and down from its highest price in three months. DTN's National HRW index closed at $3.86, near its highest price in five months.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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