DTN Early Word Grains

6:00 a.m. CME Globex:

March corn was up 3/4 cent, March soybeans were down 3 1/4 cents, and March Chicago (SRW) wheat was down 1 cent.

CME Globex Recap:

Overnight trading saw the March U.S. dollar index working toward a third consecutive close higher while grains were mostly red, their own version of the Crimson Tide. Outside commodities were mixed and fairly quiet. Much of the Midwest will experience mild temperatures Tuesday, another favorable day of moving grain for those so inclined.

OUTSIDE MARKETS:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 12.87 points lower (-0.05%) at 25,283.00, the NASDAQ Composite gained 20.83 points (0.3%) to 7,157.39, and the S&P 500 added 4.56 points (0.2%) to 2,747.71 Monday. DJIA futures were up 34 points early Tuesday morning. Asian markets were higher with Japan's Nikkei 225 up 135.46 points (0.6%), Hong Kong's Hang Seng gaining 111.88 points (0.4%), and China's Shanghai Composite rallying 4.42 points (0.1%). European markets were also trading higher with London's FTSE 100 up 27.25 points (0.35%), Germany's DAX up 27.36 points (0.2%), and France's CAC 40 gaining 29.84 points (0.5%). The euro is down 0.0035 to 1.1977 as the U.S. dollar index is trading up 0.20 at 92.30. March 30-year T-Bonds are down 13/32nds at 151'10 while February gold is down $4.70 at $1,315.70. Crude oil is $0.09 higher at $61.82 while Brent crude is down $0.05 at $67.73. China's Dalian soybean were higher and Malaysian palm oil futures was down 28 ringgits (-1.1%) overnight.

	BULL		BEAR
1)	Cash corn prices have shown steady improvement since mid-November.	1)	No lift in March corn futures as prices are challenging their lows again.
2)	Commercials increased net longs in soybeans a third consecutive week.	2)	Export paces remain bearish for corn and soybeans.
3)	Weekly stochastics have turned higher in spot winter wheat futures	3)	New-crop winter wheat futures spreads remain bearish.

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MORE COMMODITY-SPECIFIC COMMENTS

CORN March corn is trading up 3/4 cent early Tuesday, finding just enough support to hold above the December low of $3.46 1/2. Tuesday is apt to be a quiet day of trading for corn as the bulk of this week's news is expected on Friday when USDA releases its monthly WASDE estimates, a quarterly report of Grain Stocks, and its estimate of winter wheat seedings. For corn, the numbers from the first two reports are likely to be bearish, coming off another large harvest in 2017. January also tends to be a month when more farmer selling takes place and this week's warmer temperatures are offering good conditions for any so inclined. The problem, of course, is that these low prices are not offering much incentive. Cash corn has shown steady improvement since mid-November, thanks largely to domestic demand, but March corn futures remain stuck in a narrow, sideways range, near the lows of 2017.

SOYBEANS March soybeans were down 3 1/4 cents early with light commercial selling evident, but are still holding sideways in the same narrow range of the past two weeks while traders keep an eye on South America's weather. The pattern hasn't changed much the past several weeks and this week's forecast once again shows the better rain chances for Brazil while Argentina is drier with periods of hot temperatures. Both the fundamental and technical outlooks for soybeans remain bearish after prices hit new three-month lows in mid-December, but the recent increase of commercial net longs and ongoing concerns about Argentina both offer bullish dissent. One bearish factor for soybean prices this fall has been their slow pace of exports and that may lead to bearish adjustments in Friday's estimates from USDA. For now, the trend in March soybeans remains down.

WHEAT March Chicago wheat is down 1 cent early Tuesday with another day of milder temperatures across much of the U.S. This week's forecast expects precipitation in the eastern third of the U.S., but the southern and western Plains remain mostly dry, adding to concerns about what conditions will be like in the spring. Of course, there is still plenty of time ahead and traders are not apt to trade on weather concerns in January. Friday's WASDE and Grain Stocks reports are apt to look bearish for wheat again as this season's export pace is down from a year ago. USDA's estimates of winter wheat seedings however, is likely to show another small planting like last year and may be more supportive for prices. For now, the trend in winter wheat is sideways with not much happening to shake things up.

	DTN Cash	Change From	National	Contract	Change from
Commodity	Index	Prev Day	Avg. Basis	Month	Prev Day
Corn:	$3.14	-$0.04	-$0.33	Mar	$0.005
Soybeans:	$8.96	-$0.03	-$0.71	Mar	$0.009
SRW Wheat:	$3.96	-$0.03	-$0.32	Mar	$0.001
HRW Wheat:	$3.85	-$0.03	-$0.48	Mar	$0.017
HRS Wheat:	$6.04	-$0.01	-$0.21	Mar	$0.000

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Toddcan be followed throughout the day @ToddHultman1

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