DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was down 2 cents in the March contract and down 1 1/2 cents in the December. Soybeans were down 1 cent in the March contract and down 1 1/2 cents in the November. Wheat closed down 2 cents in the March Chicago contract, down 1 1/4 cents in the March Kansas City, and up 6 cents in the March Minneapolis contract.

The March U.S. dollar index is down 0.25 at 91.65. February gold is up $2.30 at $1,320.80 while March silver is down 4 cents and March copper is up $0.0030. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 159 at 25,081. February crude oil is up $0.42 at $62.05. February heating oil is down $0.0171 while February RBOB gasoline is up $0.0008 and February natural gas is down $0.144.

Corn:

March corn ended down 2 cents Thursday, staying quiet near the mid-$3s where prices have been trading for well over a month. It is interesting that prices tried to trade lower in mid-December, but were rebuffed as sellers ran out of gas while commercials stayed loyal to the long side of corn. Unless conditions in Argentina stay hot and dry after this week, there is no bullish fundamental argument for higher corn prices in view, but prices do appear to be finding support, thanks to their economic attractiveness at these low levels. Technically, the trend remains down in March corn, but momentum appears to be turning bullish as the weekly and monthly stochastics have turned higher. The export pace for corn has been bearish so far in 2017-18 with USDA's next weekly report due out Friday morning. On the cash side, DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.19 Wednesday, its highest price in over four months and priced 34 cents below the March contract. In outside markets, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is trading above 25,000 for the first time in history after ADP said 250,000 new private sector jobs were added in December, more than was expected.

Soybeans:

March soybeans ended down a penny at $9.67 3/4 Thursday, managing to survive a 9 1/2-cent drop earlier in the day as traders keep an eye on South America's weather. Barring some surprise, it seems safe to say that Brazil is in for another big soybean harvest in early 2018 as the rains have been plentiful (too much in some areas) and there is more expected in this week's forecast. We can't say that Argentina's crops are in serious trouble, but it has been just dry enough to keep traders concerned about this week's forecast for hot temperatures and light rain amounts. The technical tip as to what direction soybean prices take from here may lie with March soybean meal, which closed up $1.20 at $319.80 and is still stubbornly holding above important support at $314.80. For now, the trend in March soybeans remains down with dissent from commercials finding attractive value, positioned net long in the mid-$9s. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.97 Wednesday, priced 72 cents below the March contract and up from its lowest price in over two months. Among January contracts, delivery intentions totaled 21 for soybeans and 300 for soybean meal early Thursday.

Wheat:

March Chicago wheat closed down 2 cents at $4.34 Thursday, staying near its highest prices in a month while temperatures in the southwestern U.S. Plains yo-yo from below freezing in the morning to above freezing later in the day. Thursday's brighter spot among grains was March Minneapolis wheat after it closed up 8 cents at a new four-week high of $6.27 3/4 with help from commercial buying and ongoing concerns of drought. Thursday's U.S. Drought Monitor showed a slight worsening of dry conditions across the Southern Plains, but honestly, it was difficult to see much difference from last week's map. The seven-day forecast does show rain in store for the southeastern U.S., but the western Plains, both north and south, are expecting only light amounts or none at all. Even though wheat exports are not doing much, winter wheat demand has been good enough to pull cash prices higher the past few weeks, showing off a new four-month high in HRW wheat. For now, March Chicago wheat is maintaining a sideways trend, but momentum is slowly turning bullish as weekly and monthly stochastic indicators have turned higher. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.03 Wednesday, priced 33 cents below the March contract and at its highest price in nearly three months. DTN's National HRW index closed at $3.91, its highest price in over four months.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

(BAS)

Copyright 2018 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.