DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

Morning CME Globex Update:

Corn, soybeans and wheat were all a little lower overnight, but no strong directions are being taken this week. The March U.S. dollar index is down 0.24, about to challenge the support of its November low.

Other Markets:

Dow Jones:	Higher
U.S. Dollar Index:	Lower
Gold:	Higher
Crude Oil:	Higher

Corn:

March corn was down 3/4 cent early Thursday, still not far from its low of the year in spite of six consecutive closes higher. There is not much happening for corn this time of year, and with bitter cold prevailing over the Midwest, there is not much incentive to move corn until temperatures warm later next week. USDA's weekly report of export sales will be released early Friday, and it will be interesting to see if U.S. corn sales pick up as FOB prices for corn at Brazil's ports have jumped up to $4.25, 26 cents higher than prices at the U.S. Gulf. For now, the trend remains down while noncommercial traders see no reason to own corn when so much of it is available. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.17 Wednesday, priced 37 cents below the March contract and at its highest price in four months. In outside markets, the March U.S. dollar index is down 0.27, challenging the support of its November low while February gold is up $3.50, challenging the resistance of its November high.

Soybeans:

March soybeans were down 2 1/2 cents early with traders finding no urgent reason to own soybeans. Crop conditions in Brazil have been doing well and there is more rain in this week's forecast. Argentina has had minor concerns of dryness but is expecting periodic thundershowers this week to help moderate the impact of hot temperatures. Overall, Brazil looks on its way to another big soybean harvest in early 2018 and last week's new three-month low provided a corresponding bearish technical signal. So far however, prices have been reluctant to follow through to new lows and it is curious that commercials turned net long last week -- a possible sign that soybean demand is doing better than anticipated. For now, the trend in March soybeans remains down. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.89 Wednesday, priced 79 cents below the March contract and up from its lowest price in over two months.

Wheat:

March Chicago wheat was down 1 1/4 cents early Thursday, falling back again from its two-week highs as prices can only reap so much benefit from cold temperatures in the southwestern U.S. Plains. Sub-freezing temperatures dipped as far south as the Texas Panhandle early Thursday and are expected to drop lower this weekend, but this week's story never did have strong bullish potential, especially this early in the season. What may interest traders more in the spring are the dry weather conditions across the western U.S. Plains. Thursday's U.S. Drought Monitor showed moisture improvement in Arkansas but an increased area of severe drought along the western Kansas/Oklahoma border. Technically, the trend in winter wheat remains down, but prices appear to have support in the low $4s. DTN's National SRW index closed at $3.93 Wednesday, priced 35 cents below the March contract and near its highest price in two months.

Todd Hultmancan be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

FollowTodd on Twitter @ToddHultman1

(BAS)

Copyright 2017 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.