Fundamentally Speaking

April is often seen as the start of the U.S. growing season as corn, soybeans and spring wheat seedings begin while winter wheat is close to entering its critical reproductive phase.

Ideas that after some bad weather seasons fortunes may improve in 2023, lackluster exports across the board, what looks like record Brazilian row crop production and tighter monetary policy limiting spec interest in ag commodities all weighed on CME grain and oilseed values last month.

This chart shows April net monthly price moves in dollars per bushel on the left-hand axis and percent change on the right-hand axis for nearby corn, soybeans and Chicago wheat.

Spot corn last month fell by 25 cents which, other than the 29 cent drop in 2020, is the largest monthly decline in dollar per bushel terms for corn in the month of April, at least going back to 1990 and maybe ever, while the 3.8% tumble the second largest in percent terms since 2007.

The 61-cent drop in spot soybeans is the largest monthly decline in dollar per bushel terms for that commodity in the month of April, at least going back to 1990 and maybe ever, with the 4.1% decline also the second largest in percentage terms since 2007.

As for wheat, the 72-cent drop and resultant 10.4% decline in percentage terms are both the largest since 2008 and likely the second largest ever.

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