Canada Markets

This week's AAFC estimates included a lower revision for acres seeded to oats in 2024 to 3.071 million acres, still up 21.5% from 2023 while down from AAFC's previous unofficial estimate. Canadian production is forecast to grow by 874,000 metric tons (mt) to 3.510 million metric tons (mmt) in 2024-25 from the previous crop year, close to the 3.6 mmt estimated by the International Grains Council, while up from the lowest annual production seen since 2010 or 13 years realized in 2023. This level of production remains 10.3% below the five-year average.

The rest of the 2024-25 estimates are reported close to a carbon copy of the previous crop year, with similar export and domestic demand estimates resulting in a 400,000-mt carryout as of July 31, 2025, unchanged from the previous crop year while down 35.3% from the five-year average, as shown by the brown line on the attached chart. Should this forecast verify, Canada's ending stocks will have been reported sharply below the five-year average in five of seven years from 2018-19 through to 2024-25.

Of course, there are a lot of moving parts in this forecast and these estimates may represent a perfect world. Foodbusinessnews.net reports on a presentation by Canadian oat analyst Randy Strychar to the North American Miller's Association spring conference in Florida this month, who notes there is no cushion in terms of global stocks as we move into the 2024-25 crop year.

Strychar stated, "We're at a tipping point . . . We have very little wiggle room right now. There's no supply carryover. Last year we came in with one of the highest ending stocks we've ever seen, 1.2 million tons and we've managed to chew through that much faster than I think most of us anticipated the market would consume that."

Forces of supply and demand will be watched closely this season. AAFC's average yield estimate of 90 bushels per acre (bpa) is up from 84.1 bpa in 2023 and also above the five-year average of 86.2 bpa. The 20-year trend would indicate a yield of 91.9 bpa in 2024.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com.

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