Canada Markets

Statistics Canada reported 820,507 metric tons of canola seed crushed in November, the largest monthly crush in four months or seen in the 2018-19 crop year. As seen on the attached chart, this volume is 1.8% higher than the same month of 2017-18 (brown bar) while 6.9% higher than the three-year average. Year-to-date, the canola crush is reported at 3.049 million metric tons as of the end of December, down just 5,848 mt or .2% from the same four-month period in 2017-18.

An approximation for the Canadian Canola Board Margin Index produced by ProphetX points to a mean index of $47.46/mt in November, up from $41.25/mt in October and the August through Oct. 31 average of $34.44/mt, although remains well-below the $74.30/mt index reported for the month of November 2017.

The oil content in the November crush has fallen for three consecutive months to 42.8% in November, after the August crush started the crop year with a reported oil content of 44.9%. The average oil content over the first four months of the crop year is 43.6%, down from the 44.3% average over the first four months of the 2017-18 crop year and only slightly below the three-year average for this period.

This may bear watching. The Canadian Grain Commission's harvest sample program, which led to the Preliminary quality data for Western Canada canola 2018 report, shows an average Western Canada oil content on 1,693 samples of No. 1 Canada canola, or 80% of all samples tested, of 44.2% with a standard deviation of 2.3%.

Looking back to 2017-18, the CGC's preliminary report pegged the crop's oil content at 45.1% for No. 1 Canada, while the final report shows oil content at 45%. Statistics Canada data shows the oil produced in 2017-18 representing 44.7% of the volume of seed crushed, or just .4% below the final CGC analysis, far less than the current spread between the CGC's preliminary data and the year-to-date crush data.

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This week's poll asks what you think of the recent Statistics Canada production estimates for 2018. You can weigh in with your thoughts on this poll found at the lower right side of your DTN Canada home page.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

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