DTN Early Word Livestock Comments

		Futures	Equiv
Cattle:	Higher	Higher	Live	$240.42	-1.33	*
Hogs:	Lower	Steady	Lean	$80.86	-1.26	**

*Based on the formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer revenue. (The Live Cattle Equiv. The index has been updated to depict recent changes in live cattle weights and grading percentages.)

** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue.

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The October Cattle on Feed report was released Friday afternoon, and it's expected to bring some fireworks to the futures market Monday. Total cattle on feed was 11.37 million head, 100% of last year. Placements were at 1.777 million head, only 88% of last year. Feeders should really react to such a large drop from last year. Fed cattle marketed were reported at 1.524 million head, 93% of the total from last year. Heifer inventories were 4.3 million head, down 1% from last year. The Cold Storage report was also released Friday afternoon with total beef stocks down 5,051,000 pounds from August, and down 2,954,000 pounds from one year ago.

The Cold Storage report had total pork inventories up 9% from 2025 at 427,813,000 pounds of pork. That is down 1% from September. The biggest changes were hams, up 28% from last year, pork bellies were up 7% from last year, however, down 12% from last month. Loins inventory is up 25% year over year and 5% higher than last month. While inventories are slightly lower than last month, most were quite a bit higher than last year. With the holidays coming, a slight drop in pork inventory can make a difference in price as most are trying to grow their inventories rather than cut. The market will watch cutout values this week to see if demand increases going forward.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Placements at 88% are going to have the biggest impact on feeders but overall bullish for the cattle markets.	1)	Beef cutout values have been choppy lately, giving uncertainty to demand.
2)	Beef cold storage inventory is down 1% from last month and last year.	2)	High priced beef can cause damage to consumer demand as budgets drive purchases.
3)	Pork cold storage inventories are down 1% from last month.	3)	Pork inventories are up 9% from September 2025.
4)	Managed money bought 1,804 contracts back last week in lean hog futures.	4)	Lean hog futures continue to make new lows. From a technical perspective, they do not appear to have found a bottom yet.

For our next livestock update, please visit our Midday Livestock comments between 11 a.m. and noon CDT. Also, stay tuned to our Quick Takes throughout the day for periodic updates on the futures markets.

Robin Schmahl can be reached at rschmahl@agdairy.com

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