DTN Early Word Livestock Comments

Cattle: Steady Futures: Higher Live Equiv: $274.52 -$0.20*

Hogs: Steady Futures: Lower Lean Equiv: $87.42 +$0.85**

*Based on the formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer revenue. (The Live Cattle Equiv. The index has been updated to depict recent changes in live cattle weights and grading percentages.)

** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue.

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Total supply of beef on Friday's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report showed a 10-million-pound increase from September's report to October for 2026 projections and a 20-million-pound decrease from the September report. However, the total use for each year was lower, leading to an increase in ending stocks for 2026 and unchanged in 2027 projections. Last week, many producers were left discouraged with bids for live cattle and we expect to see deliveries executed on futures contracts.

The WASDE report had pork ending stocks increased for both 2026 and 2027. The total supply was actually decreased from the September report for both years, however usage was projected to be down 60 million pounds in 2026 at 7,050 million pounds and down 95 million pounds for 2027 projections. For this week, we expect to see cutout values stabilize and believe futures will seek a bottom soon.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Lower finishing weights on cattle will reduce beef supply quickly, giving strength to cattle markets until herd size increases.	1)	Beef imports for 2026 are expected to reach 6.347 million pounds, and that is 959 million pounds higher than 2025.
2)	Beef exports are expected to remain steady despite tight beef supply.	2)	Wholesale beef prices are falling, limiting futures momentum.
3)	Pork production is expected to decline from previously reported numbers, according to USDA's WASDE report due to lighter carcass weights.	3)	Increased pork import expectations for both 2026 and 2027, along with a decrease in exports for both years are daunting projections to overcome for the hog market.
4)	Pork cutout values ended last week higher, giving hope for support this week.	4)	Decreased demand has been weighing heavily on hog prices.

For our next livestock update, please visit our Midday Livestock comments between 11 a.m. and noon CDT. Also, stay tuned to our Quick Takes throughout the day for periodic updates on the futures markets.

Robin Schmahl can be reached at rschmahl@agdairy.com

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