DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the East, a ridge in the West and Plains, and a small trough moving into the Pacific Northwest. The ridge will spread eastward, pushing the eastern trough offshore at the end of the week. The Pacific Northwest trough will move over the top of the ridge through Canada through the rest of the week and weekend.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Another trough will move into the West this weekend with the ridge shifting to the East. The trough will move over the top of the ridge through Canada next week with more ridging taking its place at the end of next week.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, though there are differences with the active pattern next week. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system will move across the north early next week with widespread showers and thunderstorms. Its cold front may be quite active as it slowly moves through the country next week. A smaller system may move through at the end of next week with more scattered showers.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...115 AT STOVEPIPE WELLS, CA, AND 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TECOPA, CA

LOW TUE...17 AT MOUNT WASHINGTON, NH

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT TUESDAY...TALLAHASSEE, FL 1.58 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the East, a ridge in the West and Plains, and a small trough moving into the Pacific Northwest. The ridge will spread eastward, pushing the eastern trough offshore at the end of the week. The Pacific Northwest trough will move over the top of the ridge through Canada through the rest of the week and weekend. Another trough will move into the West this weekend with the ridge shifting to the East. The trough will move over the top of the ridge through Canada next week with more ridging taking its place at the end of next week.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, though there are differences with the active pattern next week. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system will move across the north early next week with widespread showers and thunderstorms. Its cold front may be quite active as it slowly moves through the country next week. A smaller system may move through at the end of next week with more scattered showers.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Temperatures are higher this week and multiple systems moving through the region or north in Canada will bring through periods of scattered showers through next week. Coverage does not look very extensive, but the opportunities are numerous, probably through the end of the month. That should give enough room to do plenty of field work and get some rain at times as well, overall, a favorable situation for the region that is having some issues with drought. Temperatures have trended colder for early next week, which may produce some frosts for a couple of mornings, however.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Recent precipitation has produced a small boost in soil moisture, but does not erase the large deficits over the last several months. Systems moving through the Northern Plains will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms starting on Thursday that could have some at least widely scattered coverage going into next week. Above-normal temperatures will be in place through at least the weekend, which adds stress to dry wheat areas, and may continue to reduce soil moisture for those areas that continually miss out on the rainfall. Temperatures have trended colder for early next week, easing heat stress.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Though areas near the Great Lakes may be chilly on Thursday morning, the risk for frost has essentially ended for the year. A front will be active as it moves into the region and settles Thursday through Saturday. A system will form along that front and push through the region Sunday through Tuesday. Models have increased their precipitation with the system, lingering it longer into next week. While the next few days should see plenty of fieldwork get done, the coming system will likely cause some delays, but continue to support good soil moisture for most areas.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Soil moisture is much improved from a couple of weeks ago, but rainfall deficits are still large across much of the region. Drier weather continues through the weekend, but a front moving in this weekend, and slowly moving through early next week should bring through several rounds of good rainfall that should continue to increase moisture and relieve drought.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Warmer temperatures this week should allow for a lot of fieldwork to occur. However, a system moving through late Wednesday through Friday will bring widespread precipitation and be followed by a burst of cold air that will bring through frosts and freezes into early next week. That is unlikely to cause any damage to crops as very little of the newly planted crop is vulnerable, but does not help with emergence or additional planting progress. Showers are likely to continue in the colder air next week, which supports building soil moisture for the crop, however.

BRAZIL (CORN/WHEAT): Wheat planting should increase throughout the month across the south and will depend on fronts moving up from Argentina. Another front is forecast to bring some rain to the south this weekend and may get a few showers into central areas as well. Any rainfall will be beneficial, but most of the safrinha corn areas have already gone a month without rain and will need a lot of rain to make a difference. Only the far south has a chance at heavier rainfall.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Corn and soybeans continue to see harvest advancing, a seasonally slow process through July. Occasional rain may disrupt harvest at times, but conditions are overall favorable. Though a front will move through later this week and weekend, it is forecast to be mostly dry across most of the country. Colder temperatures behind fronts may produce frosts at times, but are not a threat to corn, soybeans, or wheat.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): A system has spread showers across the continent this week. More showers are expected to over the next few days as an upper-level system stalls out over the continent. That will get some needed precipitation into the drier northeast, but may produce some patchy frost across the north for the next few days as well. Many winter wheat areas would be vulnerable should frosts occur.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): An upper-level low-pressure system settling over Europe is bringing through waves of showers possibly into next week, increasing moisture for wheat and corn. Most areas will welcome the rainfall as soil moisture has been improving this spring. But the showers may slow down corn planting.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Rainfall deficits are still large and conditions are still dry for much of Australia's wheat belt. Drier weather continues through for the next couple of days, with chances for showers in eastern areas this weekend into early next week. Though the showers will be helpful for increasing soil moisture a bit, the developing El Nino in the Pacific has a correlation with fewer storm systems, creating poor weather conditions for winter wheat and canola.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): The North China Plain and the northeast have been quieter this spring, a pattern that continues for the rest of this week. That may be favorable for corn and soybean planting, but not for development of either or winter wheat. Showers may increase this weekend into early next week with a system passing through. Canola areas in the south-central are in better shape from more consistent precipitation this spring.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Sunday.

Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Sunday.

East: Showers exiting early Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers Friday-Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal through Thursday, near to above normal Friday, above normal Saturday-Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday, below normal west and above normal east Tuesday-Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Wednesday-Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers Friday-Sunday. Temperatures above normal through Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures below normal northwest and above normal southeast Monday, near to below normal Tuesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures well below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers Friday-Sunday. Temperatures below normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal north and below normal south.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Thursday. Isolated showers south Friday-Saturday.

Scattered showers south Sunday. Temperatures above normal north and below normal south Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Sunday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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