Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Growing drought in the Central and Southern Plains, but an increase in precipitation next week, rainfall for parts of Argentina, and isolated showers in Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

BUSY WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE MIDWEST NEXT WEEK

A stronger front moved through the Midwest on Thursday with scattered showers, some severe weather, and a round of colder air. The colder air will be very brief as temperatures pop right back up this weekend. The weather pattern will get more active next week, which would increase potential for strong thunderstorms and heavy rain, favorable for increasing soil moisture and reducing drought as spring planting starts in some areas.

WEATHER PATTERN CHANGING FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A strong front continues to move through the Central and Southern Plains on Friday with a few showers and a round of cooler air. Temperatures will rise again next week, though. Precipitation has been very limited lately, which is causing drought to expand across the region, especially in the west. The weather pattern will get more active next week, which will promote scattered showers, but that does not guarantee precipitation for some of the driest areas. Winter wheat conditions are falling significantly and soil moisture conditions are not favorable for many areas for spring planting.

UP-AND-DOWN TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

A front moved through the Northern Plains on Thursday with a few showers and a round of cooler air that will be very brief. Temperatures should rise on Saturday and the weather pattern will be more active next week as a couple of systems will make their way through. Eventually, some colder air is likely to move in later next week, which could make for some snow. The region would certainly welcome some precipitation ahead of spring planting

DRIER IN THE DELTA, SHOWERS NEXT WEEK

Recent dry conditions are turning the momentum around toward building drought instead of reducing it, which is already widespread across the Delta region. While this will make fieldwork very easy, it will not be favorable for early growth as soil moisture is becoming limited again after some good rain in early March. The pattern looks to be a bit more active in early April, but may not necessarily bring through much precipitation.

RAIN IN BRAZIL BECOMING ISOLATED

Scattered showers in central Brazil will thin out this weekend and will likely be isolated through next week for much of the country. Conditions are mixed for safrinha corn so far, and there is roughly a month left to the wet season. Any dry time now is unfavorable for the crop.

SHOWERS SHIFTING TO SOUTHERN ARGENTINA

Isolated showers will be possible in Argentina through the weekend with some additional showers south next week. Crop conditions have stabilized after recent rains. Though the rainfall appears to be favorable, much of the crop is either in the midst of harvest, as is the early-planted corn and the beginning of soybeans or heading toward maturity. Only a shrinking fraction of the crop can still benefit from rainfall. Drier conditions earlier this year have already taken their toll on production.

SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH EUROPE

A system continues in southeastern Europe through the weekend, producing beneficial scattered showers. A few fronts will move through the northwest with showers this weekend into early next week as well. Outside of some dryness concerns in the northeast and some wetness concerns in the southwest, conditions are overall favorable for winter wheat as well as corn planting and early growth as that increases in April.

RAIN INCREASING IN THE BLACK SEA REGION THIS WEEKEND

Patchy dryness still exists in the Black Sea region as wheat comes out of dormancy in mixed condition. A system will spin through the region this weekend into next week, which would promote scattered showers and more favorable conditions.

WESTERN AUSTRALIA WATCHING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE NARELLE

A front went through eastern Australia with some showers this week, which may disrupt the cotton and sorghum harvest. Meanwhile, Western Australia will be watching Tropical Cyclone Narelle as it moves through this weekend, which will produce heavy rain and for some areas. Both ends of the country will need some rain prior to winter wheat and canola planting, which starts in April, so overall these two events should be regarded as beneficial.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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