Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Limited drought reduction in the Central U.S., a return of hot and dry weather in the Plains, and a mix of conditions in South America are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

TEMPERATURES RISING IN THE MIDWEST

Temperatures are rising in the Midwest and will be quite warm until a front moves through this weekend. Only limited showers are expected with it and the cooler air that follows will not last long as temperatures rise again next week. Another front will swing through later next week with some showers as well, but precipitation amounts are forecast to generally be light. Despite some recent cold, conditions for winter wheat are likely to be positive with all the recent rainfall and drought reduction.

HEAT BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Extremely warm air will break some records in the Central and Southern Plains through Saturday. This is coming after some frost damage earlier this week. This weekend and next week, a couple of fronts will move through but with very little precipitation in the forecast. The recent frosts, followed by heat and dryness, will not be favorable for winter wheat conditions as a lot of areas dry out significantly. Drought continues to grow over the southwestern Plains, increasing stress for wheat, and being unfavorable for the start of planting as well.

WARMER AIR BACK IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS, VARIABLE NEXT WEEK

Temperatures are quite warm to end the week in the Northern Plains. A cold front will move through this weekend with limited showers and some cooler air, but the region will be on a rollercoaster ride of temperatures through the end of the month. Fronts will move through next week, but little precipitation is in the forecast.

RAINFALL DEFICITS STILL LARGE IN THE DELTA AS THE REGION GOES DRIER AGAIN

Recent rainfall has done a good job at increasing soil moisture as well as pumping up water levels on all area rivers. The increase in soil moisture should have a positive impact, though long-term drought still resides throughout most of the region. Drier weather this week will not be favorable for reducing the drought further. And if dry conditions continue next week as well, as currently forecast, the tendency for deeper drought may continue.

REGULAR RAINFALL FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL, DRIER SOUTH

Scattered showers continue across central Brazil throughout the week, favorable for safrinha corn, but may thin out this weekend into next week, which would not be. Dryness over the south has been unfavorable for filling corn and soybeans there. A front moved in with scattered showers earlier this week, but not heavy amounts. More rain will be needed there as it is getting much drier. There is limited opportunity for more rainfall on the current forecast.

HEAVY RAINFALL FOR SOME IN ARGENTINA

A front brought some heavy rain to southern Argentina earlier this week, which will help to stabilize crop conditions. Another front will do something similar for Friday through the weekend with potential for another early next week. Though the rainfall appears to be favorable, much of the crop is either in the midst of harvest, as is the early-planted corn, or heading toward maturity, such as early-planted soybeans. So the rainfall is only somewhat helpful.

EASTERN EUROPE STILL DRIER

Much of Europe will be drier through the weekend outside of Spain, where some showers will be possible. A chance for a system will drop into the continent next week, which would be favorable for drier areas in the east. With warmer temperatures bringing winter wheat out of dormancy, some of the crop is doing so in fairly dry conditions, especially in the northeast.

SPOTTY RAIN IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

Patchy dryness still exists in the Black Sea region as wheat comes out of dormancy in mixed condition. More precipitation would be preferred, but very little is in the forecast outside of southwestern Russia that is forecast to get some patchy light rainfall into next week.

SHOWERS FOR EASTERN AUSTRALIA TOO LATE FOR COTTON AND SORGHUM

A system produced scattered showers for eastern Australia earlier this week. Not all areas got rainfall, but that isn't necessarily favorable as cotton and sorghum continue to mature and harvest begins in some areas. The moisture will be important for the coming winter wheat crop, however, which starts to be planted in April.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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