Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Recent drought reduction in the Central U.S., a return of hot and dry weather in the Plains, and a mix of conditions in South America are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

TEMPERATURES RISING IN THE MIDWEST

A blast of arctic air is already moving out of the Midwest, with a little batch of snow to welcome in the warmer air. Despite some cold, conditions for winter wheat are likely to be positive with all the recent rainfall and drought reduction. Several fronts will move through later this week, weekend, and next week, bringing a change in temperatures. However, little precipitation is in the forecast.

HEAT BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Warmer air is building over the Central and Southern Plains and will be record warm late this week after some frost damage earlier this week. This weekend and next week, a couple of fronts will move through but with very little precipitation in the forecast. The recent frosts, followed by heat and dryness, will not be favorable for winter wheat conditions as a lot of areas dry out significantly. Drought continues to grow over the southwestern Plains, increasing stress for wheat, and being unfavorable for the start of planting as well.

WARMER AIR BACK IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Temperatures are rising in the Northern Plains and will be quite warm the rest of the week, melting the recent snow. A cold front will move through this weekend with limited showers and some cooler air, but the region will be on a rollercoaster ride of temperatures through the end of the month. Fronts will move through, but with little precipitation is in the forecast.

RAINFALL DEFICITS STILL LARGE IN THE DELTA AS THE REGION GOES DRIER AGAIN

Recent rainfall has done a good job at increasing soil moisture and reducing drought in the Delta, as well as pumping up water levels on all area rivers. The increase in soil moisture should have a positive impact, though long-term drought still resides throughout most of the region. Drier weather this week will not be favorable for reducing the drought further. And if dry conditions continue next week as well, as currently forecast, the tendency for deeper drought may continue.

REGULAR RAINFALL FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL, DRIER SOUTH

Scattered showers continue across central Brazil throughout the week, favorable for safrinha corn, but may thin out this weekend into next week, which would not be. Dryness over the south has been unfavorable for filling corn and soybeans there. A front moved in on Tuesday with scattered showers that last on Wednesday as well. More rain will be needed there as it is getting much drier. There is limited opportunity for more rainfall on the current forecast.

DRIEST AREAS OF ARGENTINA SEEING HEAVY RAINFALL

A front finally brought some heavy rain to southern Argentina on Monday and Tuesday, which will help to stabilize crop conditions. Another front will do something similar for Friday through the weekend with potential for another early next week. Though the rainfall appears to be favorable, much of the crop is either in the midst of harvest, as is the early-planted corn, or heading toward maturity, such as early-planted soybeans. So the rainfall is only somewhat helpful.

EASTERN EUROPE STILL DRIER THIS WEEK

Scattered showers fell in central Europe earlier this week, but are being followed by drier conditions through the weekend. A chance for a system will drop into eastern areas next week, which would be favorable. With warmer temperatures bringing winter wheat out of dormancy, some of the crop is doing so in fairly dry conditions, especially in the northeast.

SPOTTY RAIN IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

Patchy dryness still exists in the Black Sea region as wheat comes out of dormancy in mixed condition. More precipitation would be preferred, but very little is in the forecast outside of southwestern Russia that is forecast to get some patchy light rainfall this week. Showers may be a little more widespread next week, but continue to be light.

MORE RAIN FOR EASTERN AUSTRALIA

A system continues to produce scattered showers for eastern Australia into Thursday. Not all areas are forecast to get some rainfall, but that isn't necessarily favorable as cotton and sorghum continue to mature and harvest begins in some areas. The moisture will be important for the coming winter wheat crop, however, which starts to be planted in April.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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