Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Three separate systems moving through the Central and Northern U.S. that will decrease drought, and limited rainfall in Argentina's driest areas are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

MORE ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH MIDWEST

A front went through the Midwest on Friday and Saturday, producing widespread precipitation and some severe storms. Heavier rain fell in some of the drought areas, which should improve soil moisture prior to spring planting, though deficits are rather large in some areas. The pattern stays very active with another big system for Tuesday and Wednesday with more widespread rain and thunderstorms that could be severe. Another system will produce a mix of rain and snow for Thursday and Friday with another this weekend, and then more of the same in a couple of instances for next week.

ANOTHER BIG STORM FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Areas of showers and thunderstorms moved through the Central and Southern Plains on Friday and Saturday, bringing some heavy rain and severe weather to the southeast while the northwest saw some heavy snow, which has already melted. Another stronger system will move through on Tuesday and Wednesday again with stronger storms and heavier rain in the southeast. Multiple systems will follow for later this week, weekend, and next week, but will target Nebraska over the rest of the region and even then may not bring much precipitation. Drier areas in the southwest are becoming concerning for winter wheat, particularly in the Texas Panhandle, while drought areas in the southeast got some improvement, creating mixed conditions.

SEVERAL SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Some isolated showers went through the Northern Plains over the weekend, which included some measurable snow in the southeast, but that quickly melted with warmer air returning. The weather pattern will be chaotic through next week, with multiple systems moving through. Some heavy precipitation will be possible, but not everywhere. There are some drier areas that need some precipitation before spring planting commences and will get it, but there are likely areas that will not and we could see drought growing there.

DELTA SEEING DROUGHT REDUCTION FROM WEEKEND STORM, MIDWEEK STORM

A front brought widespread showers and thunderstorms and some severe weather to the Delta over the weekend. Areas of heavy rain have eased the drought, but have not eliminated it by any means with large deficits still in place for many areas. The pattern is still favorable for bringing in some scattered showers and potential heavy rain on Monday and again on Wednesday. The focus will then shift northward for the weekend and next week, however, giving another unfavorable break in the rainfall.

RAINFALL SPREADING THROUGH BRAZIL

Scattered showers started to fill back in across Brazil over the weekend, being more favorable for newly planted safrinha corn. That should continue for most areas this week, though some in the northeast and far south will not see nearly as much as the middle of the country. Soil moisture is still on the low side and there is limited time to stack soil moisture before the wet season rainfall shuts down in the next 6-8 weeks.

DRIEST AREAS OF ARGENTINA SEEING LITTLE RAINFALL

Limited showers moved through Argentina over the weekend, primarily across the less-productive north, and even then did not produce a whole lot of coverage or amounts. Spotty showers will be possible across the country this week, but with very few areas seeing anything of consequence. Spots in the southeast are particularly dry and in need of rainfall. A front is forecast to move through this weekend with more widespread precipitation, but the forecast is drier for next week, leading to overall unfavorable conditions for filling corn and soybeans.

SPAIN SEEING MORE HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEK

A system continued to bring widespread precipitation to the western Mediterranean over the weekend, unfavorable for Spain, which has been very wet this winter. Another system is diving into the Iberian Peninsula early this week with more showers, some higher-elevation snow, and some colder temperatures. Though some showers will move through France and the UK, the rest of Europe is likely to be drier this week, somewhat unfavorable for winter wheat that is starting to awaken from dormancy at least across central areas. Northern Germany and Poland are in need of some more moisture before that happens.

GETTING DRIER IN THE BLACK SEA REGION AGAIN

Drier conditions are returning to the Black Sea region after some limited coverage and amounts over the last couple of months. Patchy dryness still exists in the region. Higher temperatures moving in this week will awaken some of the southern areas from dormancy. More precipitation would be preferred.

HEAVY RAIN FELL IN EASTERN AUSTRALIA

The remnants of Tropical Cyclone 24P brought heavy rain into northeast Australia over the weekend, causing some flooding. Drier weather is forecast this week, which should be more beneficial for cotton and sorghum to recover from some heavier rain in the eastern half of the country over the last 10 days or so.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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