Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Almost continuous rainfall moving through the Central U.S. this week with risks of severe weather, and limited rainfall in Argentina's driest areas are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

MANY ROUNDS OF RAIN MOVING THROUGH MIDWEST THROUGH NEXT WEEK

Drought remains a problem in the Midwest prior to spring planting. Warmer temperatures are moving in, and multiple waves of showers will lead to widespread rain into the weekend. Improvement to drought and dryness is expected, though some areas have large deficits to overcome. A couple of stronger systems are looking likely for next week as well.

SOME SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Soil moisture is generally low across most of the Central and Southern Plains, despite little drought designation across Colorado and Kansas. The region is getting very busy, however, with multiple waves of showers and thunderstorms into the weekend. Eastern areas are favored, which could result in flooding and severe weather. If it indeed stays drier in the west, drought could grow, a potential problem for winter wheat that is coming out of dormancy. A system in the middle of next week also favors eastern areas with precipitation and possible severe weather.

COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS

A system should bring a mix of rain and snow to parts of the Northern Plains on Thursday night and Friday, which may result in some accumulating snow in Wyoming and South Dakota. Another large system is forecast for next Tuesday with a mix of rain and snow, and there could be another one like it later next week. Temperatures will be higher than normal into early next week, but will fall behind the Tuesday system.

DROUGHT-REDUCING RAIN MOVING THROUGH DELTA THIS WEEKEND, NEXT WEEK

Rain continues over northern Brazil, allowing for a rapid pace for continued soybean harvest and safrinha corn planting across the south. However, the country needs the consistent rains to return as subsoil moisture continues to be lacking. Most of the southern half of the country is drier this week, but showers should start to fill back in this weekend, and spread through central Brazil as well. That will be about two weeks of relative dryness, a sobering sign during the wet season.

SOUTHERN, CENTRAL BRAZIL RAINFALL INCREASING THIS WEEKEND

Large-scale dryness over the last week has not been favorable for filling corn and soybeans in Argentina, which have seen falling conditions over the last two months despite some areas of wetness in February across the middle of the country. A front moved through on Monday and Tuesday with limited precipitation. Another front will move through Wednesday and Thursday, but will favor northern, less productive areas over the more fertile areas in the south and east that have had larger issues with dryness this season. Showers will linger across the north through the weekend before becoming drier next week. Temperatures are cooler this week, limiting overall stress.

ARGENTINA'S DRIEST AREAS SEEING LITTLE RAINFALL

Large-scale dryness over the last week has not been favorable for filling corn and soybeans, which have seen falling conditions over the last two months despite some areas of wetness in February across the middle of the Argentina. This week, a couple of fronts will move through, but will favor northern, less productive areas over the more fertile areas in the south and east that have had larger issues with dryness this season. Temperatures will be cooler this week, however, limiting overall stress.

SPAIN GETTING WET AGAIN WITH STALLED SYSTEM

A system will be bringing showers over the western Mediterranean through the weekend. Much of the rest of Europe will remain dry. Wetter conditions in Spain are not preferred after a long winter of excess rainfall. Dry areas in the northeast will need some precipitation this spring before winter crops awaken from dormancy, but the situation is not dire yet.

LIMITED SHOWERS ACROSS BLACK SEA REGION

Showers have been frequent in the Black Sea region during the winter, but heavy amounts have been elusive. Soil moisture is mixed across the region and more consistent precipitation is going to be needed as wheat awakens from dormancy over the next several weeks. However, the region is seeing cold fronts this week, which should reinforce some cooler air to keep wheat dormant, but with only limited precipitation.

AUSTRALIA WATCHING THE TROPICS FOR MORE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL

A stalled front produced heavy rainfall in southeastern Australia over the last week, favorable for increasing soil moisture for filling cotton and sorghum, but also produced some areas of flooding. Drier weather is taking over there now. The tropics are awakening, though, and will need to be watched as they may bring significant rainfall to the country over the month of March. One in particular could spread some heavy rain into northeastern areas this weekend.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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