Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Almost continuous rainfall moving through the Central U.S. this week, and an increase in Argentina's rainfall forecast are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

MANY ROUNDS OF RAIN MOVING THROUGH MIDWEST THIS WEEK

Drought remains a problem in the Midwest prior to spring planting. A thin band of snow moved through over the weekend and another system brought showers into the south on Sunday, which continues into Monday as a mix of rain and snow. However, warmer temperatures will move in afterward and multiple waves of showers will lead to widespread rain throughout the week and weekend. Improvement to drought and dryness is expected, though some areas have large deficits to overcome.

SOME SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEK

Soil moisture is generally low across most of the Central and Southern Plains, despite no drought designation across Colorado and Kansas. However, the region is going to be very busy with multiple waves of showers and thunderstorms into next week. Eastern areas are favored over the west, and drought in the west could grow, a potential problem for winter wheat that is coming out of dormancy.

NORTHERN PLAINS ON EDGE OF BUSY WEATHER PATTERN

A streak of moderate snow moved through the Northern Plains over the weekend, but was thin and brief. A couple of systems will move around the region this week, but we could see a system bring a mix of rain and snow to the southeast on Thursday night and Friday. A very active weather pattern is forecast to continue next week, but the potential for heavy precipitation is low. Temperatures will be higher than normal into early next week, but the region needs some heavier precipitation prior to spring planting.

RAIN SCRAPING BY DELTA THIS WEEK, BETTER CHANCES NEXT WEEK

Drought is a major problem in the Delta region prior to spring planting, though water levels on the Mississippi River are not too bad due to more frequent precipitation farther north, particularly in the Ohio Valley. Multiple rounds of rain will move through the Plains and Midwest, aiding the rivers, but precipitation will likely be limited until a front moves through this weekend. The heaviest precipitation may come through next week, which would help to reduce the drought in the region, but deficits are very large in some areas.

SOUTHERN BRAZIL DRIER UNTIL END OF WEEK

Rain has moved to northern Brazil, allowing for a rapid pace for continued soybean harvest and safrinha corn planting across the south. However, the country needs the consistent rains to return as subsoil moisture continues to be lacking. Most of the southern half of the country will be drier this week, but showers may start to fill back in this weekend. That will be about two weeks of relative dryness, a sobering sign during the wet season.

RAINFALL FORECAST INCREASING FOR PARTS OF ARGENTINA

Large-scale dryness over the last week has not been favorable for filling corn and soybeans in Argentina, which have seen falling conditions over the last two months despite some areas of wetness in February across the middle of the country. This week, a couple of fronts will move through, but will favor northern, less productive areas over the more fertile areas in the south and east that have had larger issues with dryness this season. Temperatures will be cooler this week, however, limiting overall stress.

SOUTHWESTERN EUROPE FINDING MORE RAIN THIS WEEK

Drier weather over the weekend has been a continuation since last week, which is actually preferred after a very wet pattern in the first two months of winter in Europe. However, another system will move into Spain early this week and bring showers into the Mediterranean throughout the week. Much of the rest of the continent will remain dry. Dry areas in the northeast will need some precipitation this spring before winter crops awaken from dormancy, but the situation is not dire yet.

LIMITED SHOWERS ACROSS BLACK SEA REGION

Showers have been frequent in the Black Sea region during the winter, but heavy amounts have been elusive. Soil moisture is mixed across the region and more consistent precipitation is going to be needed as wheat awakens from dormancy over the next several weeks. However, the region will see multiple cold fronts this week and next, which should reinforce some cooler air, but only bring through limited precipitation.

HEAVY RAIN FELL IN SOUTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA

A stalled front has produced heavy rainfall in southeastern Australia over the last week, favorable for increasing soil moisture for filling cotton and sorghum, but also producing some areas of flooding. The front is finally forecast to move out of the country on Tuesday with drier weather taking over into next week. The tropics are awakening, though, and will need to be watched as they may bring significant rainfall to the country over the month of March.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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