Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Cold air moving back into the Corn Belt, recent rain in the southwestern Plains, and a drier Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

MIDWEST GETTING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR

Cold air has produced frosts and freezes in the Midwest for much of the week, which may have caused damage to more-developed wheat and emergent corn and soybeans. A system is bringing widespread showers and will continue to do so into early next week, especially near the Great Lakes, mostly in the form of rain. Cooler temperatures will generally be in place for eastern areas well into May, unfavorable for planting and supportive for additional frosts.

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS DRYING OUT

A system brought widespread showers to the drought areas of the Central and Southern Plains earlier this week with another shot going through on Friday. That will help to reduce the impact of the drought, but should not make much of a dent in it. Wheat may not benefit from the rain too much due to poor conditions for most of its life cycle, but the increased soil moisture favors forages and corn and soybean planting and establishment.

TEMPERATURES WAFFLING IN NORTHERN PLAINS

A system brought in scattered showers to the Northern Plains Thursday and more will be possible across the East on Saturday. Rain is not heavy enough to increase pressure on the ongoing flooding across the Red River, but the colder temperatures will slow the drying process, limiting fieldwork and planting. Temperatures will start rising in the west this weekend and should get closer to normal for eastern areas next week, though may dip again later next week.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR DELTA

Scattered showers moved through the Delta the last couple of days with more showers coming with the passage of a cold front Saturday. Many areas of the region are wet, limiting spring planting. Areas that have been able to plant will find good conditions for germination and early growth, though temperatures will be on the cooler end of normal through the end of the month. Northern areas may catch a frost early next week.

TEMPERATURES RISING IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Below-normal temperatures continue to be unfavorable across the eastern Canadian Prairies. Western areas should see higher temperatures. The overall cooler nature will continue to limit or prohibit fieldwork and seeding across the east, but western areas are seeing a window opening up. Overall, it should be drier in the region for the next week as well, with warmer temperatures spreading across more of the region next week.

LIMITED RAIN FOR CORN IN BRAZIL

A system moved through Brazil with scattered showers this week, adding to soil moisture for a lot of areas, especially across the south. Another system is likely to stall out over southern areas next week with scattered showers, but may be just south of the primary safrinha corn areas. Instead, rain will condition soils for winter wheat planting. Overall, corn conditions are good for the time being, with an eye toward additional rain for the next couple of weeks and potential frosts through June.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR ARGENTINA

Most of the agricultural areas in Argentina have missed out on recent rainfall and conditions are favorable for harvesting a severely damaged crop. Winter wheat areas are in need of more moisture as the crop will start to be planted in the next week or two. A system moving through Sunday may provide some moisture, but more will be needed.

GOOD WEATHER FOR MOST OF EUROPE, SPAIN STILL DRY

A couple of systems will spread showers through most of Europe over the next week. Spain is in drought and in need of more rain for both winter and summer crops, but will largely stay hot and dry. Conditions across most of the rest of the continent are in good shape.

FAVORABLE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES IN THE BLACK SEA

Showers have been consistent across much of the Black Sea region over the last several weeks, favoring winter wheat development and corn planting. Some chilly air is moving into Ukraine through this weekend, but conditions continue to be mostly favorable.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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