Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- More periods of showers moving through the U.S. and decreasing soil moisture across central Brazil are the weather factors holding the market's attention Wednesday.

ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES FOR MIDWEST

Recent showers and colder temperatures are keeping soils pretty wet in a lot of the Midwest, limiting fieldwork and planting. A disturbance could bring showers to western areas Thursday with more widespread showers indicated for the weekend. Two more systems will move through next week with more showers. Eastern areas may find a long enough window to do some planting this week, though wet soils continue to hinder that goal. Colder temperatures in place will also keep corn planting and wheat development slower than average.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS WHEAT

A disturbance will move through the Southern Plains with scattered shower potential late Wednesday and Thursday, with more possible for Friday and Saturday with another system. Any heavier showers are most likely across Nebraska and eastern Kansas. Another couple of systems will quickly move through the region early to mid-next week. Western areas will see some shower activity, but it is unlikely to be too much help for drought, while eastern areas will continue to find better showers.

COOL AND WET IN PACIFIC NORTHWEST

Below-normal temperatures should remain the norm in the Pacific Northwest for the next week. Some showers will also move through at times, which may or may not produce some delays for wheat planting. The added moisture will be good for wheat development, though the colder temperatures will not.

HEAVY PRECIPITATION COMING TO NORTHERN PLAINS AGAIN

Eastern North Dakota continues to deal with flooding, though some warmer temperatures should help floodwaters recede Wednesday and Thursday. There may be some showers moving through Wednesday and Thursday, but another storm system will move through Friday through the weekend with scattered moderate to heavy showers, which may include more snow accumulation in the middle of the region. Amounts are not expected to be nearly what they have been with previous storm systems. Cold temperatures in place will continue into next week, keeping melting slow and soils from warming quickly.

PLANTING WINDOWS BRIEFLY OPEN FOR DELTA

Mostly dry weather in the Delta should follow for the rest of the week and planting progress could pick up pace for the next couple of days, though soils are wet for a lot of the region. A system moves through this weekend and more showers will be possible with a couple more systems next week, making significant planting progress unlikely.

SOIL MOISTURE DECLINING IN CENTRAL BRAZIL

Safrinha corn in central Brazil continues to see declining soil moisture well ahead of normal. The absence of showers will cause temperatures to increase, producing even more stress. Some showers may move through the region in the middle to end of next week but would be spotty. Southern areas will see waves of showers over the next couple of weeks that should maintain good soil moisture for developing to pollinating corn and winter wheat planting and establishment.

SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN ARGENTINA

Scattered showers are expected to continue in northern Argentina going into the weekend. Showers at this point in the season will have limited positive effects for corn and soybeans while hampering the ongoing harvest. Increased soil moisture over the south will favor wheat as planting gets underway.

SPOTTY SHOWERS FOR BLACK SEA

Soil moisture is mostly favorable across the Black Sea region for developing wheat. Isolated showers will provide some added rainfall, but drier windows will help with corn planting.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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