DTN Ag Weather Brief

DTN Ag Weather Brief

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist
NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...90 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE TX

LOW MON...0 AT MACKAY ID

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7PM MONDAY...CASPER WY 0.16 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

There is a ridge in the East and a trough off the Pacific Coast moving into the West. The trough will move through the country this week, taking until next week to push offshore. A ridge will develop behind the trough across the West and will do its best to shield the country from systems moving through. Models are mixed on whether or not it will succeed but will likely be too weak and another trough will move into western North America by the middle of next week and continue eastward.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement. I will use a blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Sunday will be near to below normal across the East and above normal in the West. Lower temperatures will push through eastern areas while the middle of the country should see temperatures rise above normal. Some lower temperatures will make their way into the Pacific Northwest and eventually into the Plains next week, keeping the roller coaster ride going. A system will be moving through the Midwest late in the weekend and eastward early next week. Another is likely to follow through the middle of the country in the middle-to-end of next week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN): A system will move through Wednesday mostly with scattered moderate rain. The system should wrap up over Minnesota on Thursday, then bring snow to the region late Thursday into Friday. Strong winds may also coincide with the snow, causing blizzard conditions and significantly impacting the remaining corn harvest.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Hot and dry conditions over the weekend continued to draw moisture out of the soil and negatively impacted winter wheat establishment. A system will move through on Wednesday, bringing scattered showers through, but mostly to eastern areas while western areas remain dry. Strong winds may also develop, helping to dry out soils further. There is a small chance for showers across western areas late in the week, but overall conditions continue to be unfavorable for winter wheat.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Warm and dry conditions over the weekend helped soils to drain and favored the remaining harvest. There will be some isolated showers that move through the region Tuesday. Mostly light showers are expected but there could be a string of moderate showers across northern Indiana and Ohio that could cause some localized issues. But the real storm comes a day later as widespread showers will move through the region Wednesday and Thursday. Snow is likely to wrap around the backside of the system around Minnesota with potential accumulation that could impact the remaining corn harvest. Winds will also be an issue with the system and some lake-effect showers may continue into the weekend. A secondary system will move through over the weekend and add more precipitation to the region, with snow accumulations possible across the north.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON/WINTER WHEAT): Warm and dry conditions over the weekend favored harvest. A system will bring scattered showers through the area Wednesday night into Thursday, benefiting winter wheat establishment but could impact the remaining harvest.

SOUTHEAST (COTTON/LIVESTOCK): Scattered showers moved through Friday into Saturday and were heavy in spots, impacting cotton harvest. Dry weather is expected for the next few days, but a front will slowly move through late this week with scattered showers that could impact harvest some more.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST (WINTER WHEAT): Some showers moved through over the weekend but mostly occurred in the mountains. Several waves will move through over the next week, each bringing potential for helpful showers. But most areas are likely to only see light precipitation and lower temperatures through the week will also slow growth on wheat.

BRAZIL (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Daily scattered showers will continue across central areas for the next week. Dryness over Rio Grande do Sul is expected this week as the only area with detrimental conditions for the foreseeable future. The dryness will help with the remaining wheat harvest. But scattered showers are likely to move through southern areas over the coming weekend.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front moved through over the weekend and put an end to the good rainfall pattern. However, isolated showers will still pop up through the week, especially for the drier western areas. A system should push through the country over the weekend and bring widespread scattered showers, which would be favorable for corn and soybean planting and early growth.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers moved through a good portion of the continent over the weekend and has been overall favorable for winter wheat development. A low-pressure system in the Mediterranean will continue to produce occasional showers for Spain and Italy through the week while northern areas should be drier, helping to finish up fall harvest.

UKRAINE/SOUTHWEST RUSSIA (WHEAT/CORN/SUNFLOWERS): Some showers went through Ukraine and northern Russia over the weekend, but most areas remained unfavorably dry. A front moving through the region is somewhat active early this week with some showers activity, but dryness will follow for the rest of the week. The incoming rainfall will be somewhat helpful but likely not enough before wheat goes dormant.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SORGHUM): Scattered showers moved through over the weekend, maintaining mostly good moisture supplies for summer cotton and sorghum, but putting some pressure on wheat and canola harvest. A couple more systems moving through this week are likely to create more harvest and some quality issues.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures well above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday and Thursday. Snow north Friday. Scattered showers Saturday night. Temperatures above normal through Thursday, near to below normal Friday and Saturday.

East: Isolated showers Tuesday and Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday. Isolated showers Friday and Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Thursday, near to above normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Sunday and Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures near to below normal Sunday and Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday and Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday. Isolated showers south Thursday night. Mostly dry Friday. Isolated showers north Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Wednesday, near normal Thursday, below normal Friday, near to above normal west and near to below normal east Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Sunday. Mostly dry Monday and Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures near to above normal west and near to below normal east Sunday and Monday, above normal Tuesday and Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday.

Mississippi Delta (soybeans/cotton)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Tuesday. Scattered showers late Wednesday night and Thursday. Mostly dry Friday and Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday, above normal Wednesday and Thursday, near to below normal Friday and Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Sunday through Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday. Temperatures below normal Sunday through Tuesday, near normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers north. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers north through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures near normal through Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near normal through Saturday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Isolated showers west. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers west through Friday. Scattered showers Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Isolated showers west. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers west through Friday. Scattered showers Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday.

John Baranick