Commodities Market Impact Weather

US Eyeing Storm for Next Week

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A large storm forecast for next week in the United States, the end of a good rainfall pattern in Argentina, and wet conditions for wheat harvest in eastern Australia are the weather factors holding the market's attention Friday.

STORM SYSTEM COMING TO MIDWEST

Cold air into the Midwest will slow growth on winter wheat, but the region will go through a warming trend through the weekend. Dryness will lead to some good harvest weather going into next week. A weak system will bring some showers across the region early next week and another system will likely move through during the middle and end of next week, but there is uncertainty in how this will develop. Moderate precipitation could cause more harvest delays should it occur.

MILD AND DRY FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS

A front brought at least some showers to the Southern Plains this week, but dryness continues to be a concern for winter wheat establishment, especially in the southwest. Dryness and above-normal temperatures during the next several days will be detrimental. A system in the middle of next week could bring some showers, but mostly to eastern areas.

NORTHERN PLAINS STORM NEXT WEEK

Temperatures will continue to be mild across the Northern Plains into next week with some good harvest conditions. A system will likely move through during the middle of next week, but there is uncertainty in how this will develop. Seemingly everything is on the table in terms of precipitation and temperatures, but the most likely scenario is for moderate precipitation to move through with falling temperatures and a turn to snow, which could affect the remaining corn harvest.

DRY AND COOL IN DELTA

Scattered showers that moved through the Delta this week should not have affected harvest very much. Lower temperatures should slow growth on winter wheat through the weekend before temperatures rise. A system moving through mid-to-late next week could provide good rainfall for wheat but impede harvest again.

HARVEST DELAYS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST

Scattered showers will move through during the next couple of days and could affect cotton harvest. Colder weather will follow the system going into next week.

WAVES OF LIGHT RAIN FOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST

Drought remains a large concern for winter wheat in the Pacific Northwest. A trough off the coast will bring in a few waves of showers over the next week, which may be helpful for a few areas where moisture piles up a bit. But more moisture is needed throughout the rest of the fall and winter.

ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR BLACK SEA

A couple of weak systems will bring some showers mostly to Ukraine for the next week, while Russia stays fairly dry. There continues to be dryness concerns for winter wheat establishment in these drier areas and time is running out for beneficial moisture before dormancy.

SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS BRAZIL

Daily scattered showers will continue across central Brazil for the next week, while a couple of rounds of showers are expected across southern areas as well. Dryness over Rio Grande do Sul is expected next week as the only area with detrimental conditions for the foreseeable future. The dryness will help with the remaining wheat harvest, however.

RUN OF GOOD RAIN ENDING FOR ARGENTINA

A front moving through northern Argentina with scattered showers will clear the country on Saturday. Recent rainfall has favored corn and soybean planting as well as immature winter wheat in the short term. Drier conditions are expected during the weekend, but some isolated showers may pop back up next week, especially over western areas. A drier pattern is returning but the isolated showers will cut into the dryness concerns for some.

WET HARVEST CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN AUSTRALIA

A system is bringing widespread showers to the Australian wheat belt this week, benefiting immature wheat and canola, and developing cotton and sorghum. But showers are also causing harvest delays and possible quality issues. A couple more fronts will bring isolated to scattered showers to the wheat belt through next week.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick