DTN Oil Update
Oil Futures Down on Low EIA Crude Price Forecast for 2025
HOUSTON (DTN) -- The front-month NYMEX crude contract prices for January deliveries and Brent crude contract prices for February edged down on Tuesday after the Energy Information Administration forecasted lower prices for both crude benchmarks in 2025, compared to 2024.
According to its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) report, EIA anticipates a WTI spot price average for $71.63 barrel (bbl) in 2025, compared to an estimated average of $76.96 bbl for 2024. Meanwhile, the EIA-STEO report forecasts a Brent spot price average of $76.08 bbl for 2025 from a forecast of $80.93 bbl for 2024.
Throughout Tuesday, oil futures showed few changes as participants await market direction from U.S. inflation data for November, to be released on Wednesday.
Oil futures showed little change this morning as market participants remained In a wait-and-see situation as the Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release November's Consumer Price Index on Wednesday.
Economists expect the Consumer Price Index for November to increase 2.7% year-on-year, from 2.6% in October.
The inflation data will be a key factor in determining whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in 2025 to as low as 3% from the current range of 4.5% to 4.75%. The decision will be announced on Dec. 18, when the Federal Open Market Committee meets.
Downstream, the national average for retail regular gasoline continued lower as of Dec. 9, down by 2.6 cents to $3.008 gallon, hitting a multi-year low since the week ended May 10, 2021, according to the latest data from the EIA.
Separately, the International Air Transport Association expects net profits of $36.6 billion for the global airline industry in 2025, an increase of 3.6% compared to last year, driven by lower jet fuel prices. IATA estimates total industry revenues to reach $1.007 trillion, a 4.4% hike year-over-year, surpassing the $1 trillion mark for the first time.
Nearly 3:51 p.m. EST, January WTI fell $0.02 to $68.35 bbl while February Brent was $71.95 bbl, down $0.78. January RBOB futures dropped by $0.0048 to $1.9477 gallon and January ULSD futures fell $0.0039 to $2.1796 gallon.
Maria Eugenia Garcia can be reached at Maria.Garcia@dtn.com
