DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

OMAHA (DTN) -- Most average retail fertilizer prices continued to rise the second week of August 2021, once again led by potash, according to sellers surveyed by DTN.

Like last week, six of the eight major fertilizers were higher compared to last month, with only potash up a significant amount, which DTN designates 5% or more. Potash was up 13% compared to the prior month and now has an average price of $563 per ton.

The remaining five fertilizers were just slightly higher. DAP had an average price of $695/ton, MAP $755/ton, urea $555/ton, 10-34-0 $630/ton and anhydrous $740/ton.

Two fertilizers, UAN28 and UAN32, were slightly lower in price looking back a month. UAN28 had an average price of $366/ton and UAN32 $418/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.60/lb.N, anhydrous $0.45/lb.N, UAN28 $0.65/lb.N and UAN32 $0.65/lb.N.

In a post to the farmdocDaily e-newsletter, University of Illinois ag economists Gary Schnitkey, Nick Paulson and Krista Swanson, along with Ohio State University ag economist Carl Zulauf, wrote about 2021 fertilizer prices and the implications for 2022 costs. The post can be found at https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/….

USDA's Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) reported Illinois fertilizer prices on July 29, 2021, with anhydrous at $746/ton, DAP $717/ton and potash at $600/ton, considerably higher from a year earlier. The last time the anhydrous price was this high was June 2014, DAP December 2008 and potash November 2012.

Anhydrous price increased from $487/ton to $746/ton in 2021, up $259/ton or 53%. DAP rose from $390/ton to $717/ton, up $327/ton or 83%. Potash price increased from $350/ton to $600/ton in 2021 and saw a rise of $250/ton or 71%.

"Current higher fertilizer prices will translate into higher fertilizer costs for 2022 production of corn and soybeans," the report said. "However, exact increases depend on farmer behavior and how fertilizer prices change from now through the 2022 fertilizer purchasing season."

While current retail fertilizer prices are high, they are not at all-time highs ... yet. According to AMS prices tracked since 2009, three other years (2009, 2012, 2013) saw anhydrous, DAP and potash prices higher than their current levels.

"History suggests that fertilizer prices can change rapidly, likely bringing modifications to fertilizer cost projections," the report said. "Further note that several periods of sharp declines have occurred in history."

Retail fertilizer prices compared to a year ago show all fertilizers have increased significantly.

10-34-0 is now 35% more expensive, urea is 56% higher, potash is 59% more expensive, UAN32 is 61% higher, DAP is 63% more expensive, UAN28 65% higher, DAP is 66% more expensive and MAP is 74% higher compared to last year.

DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time.

DTN Pro Grains subscribers can find current retail fertilizer price in the DTN Fertilizer Index on the Fertilizer page under Farm Business.

Retail fertilizer charts dating back to 2010 are available in the DTN fertilizer segment. The charts included cost of N/lb., DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32.

DRY
Date Range	DAP	MAP	POTASH	UREA
Aug 10-14 2020	426	434	353	355
Sep 7-Sep 11, 2020	434	445	345	360
Oct 5-9 2020	441	466	335	361
Nov 2-6 2020	447	479	331	358
Nov 30-Dec 4 2020	455	499	340	359
Dec 28-Jan 1 2021	475	537	366	367
Jan 25-29 2021	500	580	379	405
Feb 22-26 2021	605	661	408	464
Mar 22-26 2021	616	696	428	499
Apr 19-23 2021	627	703	432	510
May 17-21 2021	642	708	440	521
Jun 14-18 2021	661	719	454	531
Jul 12-16 2021	693	730	501	550
Aug 9-13 2021	695	755	563	555
LIQUID
Date Range	10-34-0	ANHYD	UAN28	UAN32
Aug 10-14 2020	465	447	221	259
Sep 7-Sep 11, 2020	459	434	216	253
Oct 5-9 2020	457	424	209	250
Nov 2-6 2020	455	423	208	248
Nov 30-Dec 4 2020	459	427	208	249
Dec 28-Jan 1 2021	464	470	209	250
Jan 25-29 2021	489	489	220	258
Feb 22-26 2021	532	544	250	296
Mar 22-26 2021	599	684	335	376
Apr 19-23 2021	612	707	348	391
May 17-21 2021	620	716	361	407
Jun 14-18 2021	621	719	365	414
Jul 12-16 2021	624	725	368	418
Aug 9-13 2021	630	740	366	418

Russ Quinn can be reached at russ.quinn@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @RussQuinnDTN

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