DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

OMAHA (DTN) -- Retail fertilizer prices tracked by DTN for the third week of November 2019 continued mostly lower. This lower trend in prices has been in place for several months now.

Seven of the eight major fertilizers were lower in price from the month earlier, although once again none were considerably lower. DAP had an average price of $456/ton, MAP $466/ton, potash $381/ton, urea $387/ton, anhydrous $496/ton, UAN28 $245/ton and UAN32 $284/ton.

The remaining fertilizer, 10-34-0, was slightly higher from last month with an average price of $472/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.42/lb.N, anhydrous $0.30/lb.N, UAN28 $0.44/lb.N and UAN32 $0.44/lb.N.

All the weather issues surrounding corn production this growing season have weighed heavily on some fertilizer stocks. One stock analyst, however, expects a rebound into next year, according to Dow Jones.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst Steve Byrne upgraded CF Industries Holding and Nutrien to "Buy" from "Neutral" on Monday. He noted both stocks could benefit from an agricultural rebound.

Nutrien stock was up 1.1% and CF Industries was up 2.7% in trading Monday afternoon.

"After a year of markedly lower fertilizer prices, we believe fertilizer shares reflect particularly attractive buying opportunities given our expectation for a price inflection by spring in all three major nutrients," Byrne wrote. "Phosphate and potash inventories remain high, but strong demand in North America, Brazil and India should facilitate quick drawdowns and increased purchasing."

Prospects are for more corn acres next spring and companies that sell fertilizer could benefit, he wrote.

Byrne wrote CF Industries' low-cost position should allow it to benefit in the medium term despite technological and industry developments which will continue to put some pressure on nitrogen prices. Nutrien's nitrogen and potash businesses are at the low end of the global cost curve and well positioned for future growth, he wrote.

Retail fertilizers are mixed in price from a year ago. MAP is now 12% less expensive, DAP is 9% lower, urea is 5% less expensive, anhydrous is 4% lower and both UAN28 and UAN32 are 1% less expensive from last year at this time. In addition, 10-34-0 is 3% more expensive and potash is 4% higher compared to last year.

DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time.

DTN Pro Grains subscribers can find current retail fertilizer price in the DTN Fertilizer Index on the Fertilizer page under Farm Business.

Retail fertilizer charts dating back to 2010 are available in the DTN fertilizer segment. The charts included cost of N/lb., DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32.

DRY
Date Range	DAP	MAP	POTASH	UREA
Nov 19-23 2018	501	530	368	407
Dec 17-21 2018	508	532	377	407
Jan 14-18 2019	512	534	383	407
Feb 11-15 2019	512	537	385	405
Mar 11-15 2019	510	534	386	402
Apr 8-12 2019	505	532	387	404
May 6-10 2019	501	527	391	418
Jun 3-7 2019	497	527	392	434
Jul 1-5, 2019	498	532	392	432
Jul 29-Aug 2 2019	494	530	393	428
Aug 26-30 2019	491	494	387	412
Sep 23-27, 2019	479	475	384	404
Oct 21-25, 2019	465	473	383	404
Nov 18-22 2019	456	466	381	387
LIQUID
Date Range	10-34-0	ANHYD	UAN28	UAN32
Nov 19-23 2018	457	520	246	287
Dec 17-21 2018	457	565	265	304
Jan 14-18 2019	462	580	270	305
Feb 11-15 2019	470	596	271	318
Mar 11-15 2019	469	596	269	318
Apr 8-12 2019	481	592	271	317
May 6-10 2019	487	595	267	310
Jun 3-7 2019	487	591	271	314
Jul 1-5, 2019	482	584	276	317
Jul 29-Aug 2 2019	486	580	272	320
Aug 26-30 2019	470	528	256	290
Sep 23-27, 2019	471	511	254	289
Oct 21-25, 2019	471	507	251	291
Nov 18-22 2019	472	496	245	284

Russ Quinn can be reached at russ.quinn@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @RussQuinnDTN

(CZ/SK)

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