DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

OMAHA (DTN) -- Retail prices of most fertilizers followed no particular trend in the past week, with some falling, some increasing and some remaining unchanged, according to dealers tracked by DTN for the fourth week of October 2015.

The bottom line is that compared to a month ago, all fertilizers trended lower but none have budged more than 4%.

DAP averaged $546/ton, MAP $562/ton, potash $431/ton, urea $409/ton, 10-34-0 $583/ton, anhydrous $638/ton, UAN28 $292/ton and UAN32 $234/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.44/lb.N, anhydrous $0.39/lb.N, UAN28 $0.52/lb.N and UAN32 $0.52/lb.N.

All retail fertilizer prices except 10-34-0 are lower now compared to a year earlier.

Urea has seen the most dramatic fall with prices now 19% lower than last year. Prices of UAN28 and UAN32 are both 11% lower than last year, while potash comes in at 10% lower.

Anhydrous prices are 9% lower than last year, while DAP and MAP come in at a 6% decline respectively. Starter fertilizer, 10-34-0, runs 5% above year ago levels.

FERTILIZER PRICES LIKELY TO SOFTEN IN COMING MONTHS

Retail fertilizer prices will likely soften as winter months approach, according to Bob Rogers from Maplehurst Farms in Rochelle, Illinois. This gradual weakening is due to growers cutting back slightly on application, as well as the market flooding a bit with inventories.

"We're seeing some softening here through the fall on most products," Rogers said.

With lowered prices, farmers may likely come back and buy more product in the spring, Rogers added. Overall, it is now pretty much a buyer's market for fertilizer, he said.

Rogers said he has not had any purchasing yet for next season. "Farmers will probably wait until the first of the year," he said, which is normal for the area.

Fall application has been running normal, Rogers said.

"Our applications have been good. Our rates have been good," he said. "So, we're more than happy with what we're getting down and what they're committing to for fall fertilizer."

Rogers said he does not foresee any supply concerns, but believes there may be some issues with logistics on the Mississippi River.

"There's plenty of fertilizer, but the transportation on the river is a little tough with the river being so low," he said.

DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time.

DTN Pro Grains subscribers can find current retail fertilizer prices in the DTN Fertilizer Index on the Fertilizer page under Farm Business.

Retail fertilizer charts dating back to November 2008 are available in the DTN fertilizer segment. The charts included cost of N/lb., DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32.

DTN's average of retail fertilizer prices from a month earlier ($ per ton):

DRY
Date Range	DAP	MAP	POTASH	UREA
Oct 27-31 2014	579	598	478	503
Nov 24-28 2014	576	595	480	492
Dec 22-26 2014	566	593	485	462
Jan 19-23 2015	568	596	487	469
Feb 16-20 2015	568	597	495	472
Mar 16-20 2015	570	597	490	470
Apr 13-17 2015	570	598	491	453
May 11-15 2015	570	598	491	457
June 8-12 2015	571	598	491	461
July 6-10 2015	570	596	489	470
Aug 3-7 2015	567	591	482	464
Aug 31-Sept 4 2015	564	583	471	439
Sept 28-Oct 2 2015	561	573	450	424
Oct 26-30 2015	546	562	431	409
Liquid
Date Range	10-34-0	ANHYD	UAN28	UAN32
Oct 27-31 2014	558	701	327	373
Nov 24-28 2014	564	712	323	368
Dec 22-26 2014	573	706	320	362
Jan 19-23 2015	585	707	326	367
Feb 16-20 2015	593	706	330	370
Mar 16-20 2015	614	705	332	368
Apr 13-17 2015	649	711	332	370
May 11-15 2015	653	711	331	371
June 8-12 2015	649	709	331	371
July 6-10 2015	640	695	327	366
Aug 3-7 2015	628	677	318	354
Aug 31-Sept 4 2015	602	659	304	349
Sept 28-Oct 2 2015	594	644	295	342
Oct 26-30 2015	583	638	292	334

Cheryl Anderson can be reached at Cheryl.anderson@dtn.com.

Follow her on Twitter @CherylADTN

(MZT/CZ)

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