DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

OMAHA (DTN) -- Prices of most types of retail fertilizer declined the third week of October 2015, according to dealers tracked by DTN.

With the exception of DAP, which remained unchanged last week, prices dropped for other major fertilizer types tracked by DTN.

Potash prices continued to fall, dropping $11 per ton in the past two weeks: falling $5 last week and $6 the previous week. The price of urea also dropped $5 in the past week.

Prices of UAN28 and UAN32 both dropped $4 in the past week, while anhydrous prices fell $3 since last week. Prices of MAP and 10-34-0 both dropped just $2 since last week.

DAP averaged $547 per ton, MAP $562/ton, potash $435/ton, urea $413/ton, 10-34-0 $582/ton, anhydrous $637/ton, UAN28 $291/ton and UAN32 $334/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.45/lb.N, anhydrous $0.39/lb.N, UAN28 $0.52/lb.N and UAN32 $0.52/lb.N.

All fertilizer prices are lower compared to a year earlier.

Urea prices have declined the greatest amount since 2014, down 18%, with UAN28 prices down 11%. Prices of potash, anhydrous and UAN32 are all 9% lower than last year, with prices of DAP and MAP each 6% lower than last year's levels.

FARMERS WAITING FOR HARVEST COMPLETION TO BOOK FERTILIZER

Bob Worth, who farms near Lake Benton, Minnesota, said that he has not booked any fertilizer yet this fall. Worth said he spoke with his fertilizer dealer, who advised him to wait a bit, as fertilizer prices were softening.

With the exception of one year when he bought early because prices were predicted to rise considerably, Worth said late fall is normally when he buys.

"We will not be booking any fertilizer until the first part of November," he said. "That's when we really get serious into next year's business."

He added that he does buy at the end of year for tax purposes, but also because November and December are usually by far the best buy for fertilizer.

Worth said he will apply P & K this fall on fields where he will plant soybeans next year, but will apply all his corn fertilizer in the spring.

Worth said he is looking to work more with local hog barns to increase his use of natural fertilizer, which he feels works better than commercial fertilizer.

"It seems like we are getting a better yield response from hog manure than commercial fertilizer," he said. He added that because the hog manure is more natural and organic, he does not have to worry as much about run-off and environmental regulations.

He added that he still needs to buy commercial fertilizer, as he is unable to get enough hog manure to replace it all.

Matt Rush, who farms near Fairfield, Illinois, said he has decided not to put on any fertilizer this fall.

"With the low commodity prices we're seeing this year, we would like to see if there's a response in fertilizer prices," he said.

He added that he has not booked any fertilizer yet for next season.

"We usually don't start thinking about it until after the crops are off, at least the first of November," Rush said.

When Rush does lock in fertilizer, he usually relies on his local cooperative for guidance on where market prices are at and where predictions are that they may go.

As for spring, Rush said he plans on applying as much fertilizer as he normally does.

"We won't cut rates just because of the price," he said.

DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time.

DTN Pro Grains subscribers can find current retail fertilizer price in the DTN Fertilizer Index on the Fertilizer page under Farm Business.

Retail fertilizer charts dating back to November 2008 are available in the DTN fertilizer segment. The charts included cost of N/lb., DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32.

DTN's average of retail fertilizer prices from a month earlier ($ per ton):

DRY
Date Range	DAP	MAP	POTASH	UREA
Oct 20-24 2014	582	599	478	507
Nov 17-21 2014	576	595	480	493
Dec 15-19 2014	565	592	483	461
Jan 12-16 2015	566	594	486	465
Feb 9-13 2015	569	597	488	473
Mar 9-13 2015	570	597	489	471
Apr 6-Apr 10 2015	570	598	491	461
May 4-8 2015	570	598	491	457
June 1-5 2015	570	598	491	461
June 29-July 3 2015	570	596	490	469
July 27-31 2015	569	594	487	469
Aug 24-28 2015	567	586	476	447
Sept 21-25 2015	562	575	454	428
Oct 19-23 2015	547	562	435	413
LIQUID
Date Range	10-34-0	ANHYD	UAN28	UAN32
Oct 20-24 2014	557	697	327	367
Nov 17-21 2014	560	709	322	366
Dec 15-19 2014	572	705	322	362
Jan 12-16 2015	582	710	325	364
Feb 9-13 2015	589	707	330	370
Mar 9-13 2015	626	706	331	371
Apr 6-Apr 10 2015	648	709	333	370
May 4-8 2015	653	711	331	371
June 1-5 2015	650	710	331	371
June 29-July 3 2015	642	705	330	369
July 27-31 2015	636	689	324	354
Aug 24-28 2015	609	667	309	350
Sept 21-25 2015	589	646	297	343
Oct 19-23 2015	582	637	291	334

Cheryl Anderson can be reached at Cheryl.anderson@dtn.com

Follow her on Twitter @CherylADTN

(GH/AG)

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