Study: Ethanol Can Move to Net-Zero

LINCOLN, Neb. (DTN) -- Preliminary results of a new study released by the Energy Futures Initiative Foundation on Friday show corn ethanol has the potential to achieve near-net-zero carbon emissions by 2035 and net-zero by 2050, outlining the pathways to achieve that goal.

The potential for corn ethanol to be a sustainable aviation fuel feedstock hinges on the ethanol industry's ability to further reduce emissions.

The preliminary results released during a Growth Energy press conference show what the foundation said are nine currently available and "affordable" measures that taken together could get corn ethanol to net-zero or even negative emissions by 2050.

The study identifies the acceleration of current measures that can and are being taken at plants and on the farm.

That includes carbon capture and storage of the fermentation process; low-carbon energy use at plants, including combined heat and power generation with biomass; and using carbon-free electricity.

In addition, the foundation points to the use of cover crops, no-till farming, applying enhanced efficiency fertilizers and fertilizer management practices as effective measures.

"Today, ethanol, even with its significantly improved carbon performance with respect to gasoline, would not qualify for the tax credits available for sustainable aviation fuel," said Ernest Moniz, former U.S. secretary of energy and current CEO of the foundation.

"As you know, a market that is really eager to get low-carbon fuels is somewhat less price sensitive than some other areas, but very, very hard to decarbonize. Ethanol provides an opportunity here, as well, and with the decarbonization of ethanol, then we will be able to draw upon the federal tax credits and in many, many states, state credits as well."

The research sponsored by Growth Energy included months of analyzing the carbon-intensity reduction potential, feasibility and cost-effectiveness of a total of 21 different measures taking place on farms and at biorefineries across the U.S.

The full study results are set to be unveiled at the Clinton Global Initiative annual summit during Climate Week NYC next week.

The study also identified 12 other measures that are not yet viable to adopt but could make deeper cuts to carbon emissions down the road.

That includes renewable natural gas and blue hydrogen use in combined heat and power; the use of renewable diesel in farm equipment, including corn and ethanol transfer; fuel switching to RNG; the use of blue ammonia fertilizers; thermal energy generation from carbon capture; the use of green hydrogen in power and heat generation; and the use of green ammonia fertilizers.

The ethanol industry and many others who have a stake in the future of a sustainable aviation fuel industry continue to wait for the release of guidance on the 45Z clean fuels production tax credit.

Growth Energy CEO Emily Skor said on Friday that investors are waiting for direction on a tax credit that could help spark more decarbonization in the ethanol industry.

"We need innovation," she said. "We need demand creation. We need some markets certainty to incentivize the capital investments required at the outset to be able to bring these technologies to fruition. So, we need to see the guidance from 45Z."

Skor said the 45Z credit would drive many of the potential carbon-cutting measures identified in the foundation's study.

"The private sector doesn't know what the rules of the road are going to be, and so they need the answers, they need that certainty," she said.

"And then we also need more time. Three years is the current duration of 45Z. We certainly would like to see that extended to give us time and a bit of a glide path to be able to do the capital investment and then reap the rewards down the road."

Moniz said the move away from liquid fuels toward electric-vehicle technologies doesn't entirely make sense. Though the electricity sector will continue to be an important part of the future, he said liquid fuels will have a place for some time to come.

"Electric vehicles will probably continue to get market share, but the reality is the transportation sector, whether it's light-duty vehicles or large airplanes, long-distance airplanes, liquid fuels with their very high energy densities will be essential," Moniz said.

"Liquid hydrogen is often thought of as the gold standard of a high-energy density, let's call it fuel, at least loosely. Well, the reality is the energy density per liter of gasoline or ethanol is a multiple of that liquid hydrogen. And that's an indicator as to why I say that in these sectors, liquid fuels are essential."

Also see "RFA Leader: We Need 45Z Tax Guidance" here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

Todd Neeley can be reached at todd.neeley@dtn.com

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