Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A series of clippers moving through the U.S. in early November, a return to lower water levels on the Mississippi River, and showers across central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

CLIPPERS MOVING THROUGH MIDWEST

A system moved through the Midwest this weekend with largely isolated showers. The region will be under the gun from multiple clipper systems that will move through over the next 10 days or so. One of them moving through this weekend will bring down some colder air for a couple of days. That cold air moving over the warm Great Lakes could add up to some significant lake-effect snow in some prone areas. Winds should be breezy with all the clippers moving through, but precipitation will be rather limited. Overall, conditions are still favorable for harvest and other fieldwork.

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS DRYING OUT

A few showers went through the Central and Southern Plains over the weekend, but it was largely dry. The storm track will be well to the north going into next week, which should leave the region drier despite some fronts moving into or through the region. That could make for some variable temperatures and occasionally breezy winds. The dryness is not a major concern in November as falling temperatures throughout the month will eventually get wheat into more of a dormant state. It will help with harvest and fieldwork, instead.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PLAINS DESPITE ACTIVE CLIPPER PATTERN

Some isolated showers moved through the Northern Plains over the weekend. A couple of clippers will move through over the next 10 days that should bring some limited precipitation and variable temperatures. Breezy winds may also be an issue like they were over the weekend, which would be more of a concern for combine fires when the humidity is too low.

MISSISSIPPI RIVER WATER LEVELS FALLING AGAIN THIS WEEK AFTER BRIEF BOOST

Water levels will crest from north to south on the Mississippi River this week. Very little precipitation from a weather pattern that will be promoting clipper systems across the north will mean that water levels will return to some hazardous levels for the second half of November if the pattern doesn't change to a more favorable one.

HEAVY RAIN RETURNING TO CENTRAL BRAZIL

A front moved into central Brazil over the weekend and is restarting showers after another long stretch of dryness. Producers may have been worried about soil moisture for germination and early growth on soybeans, but showers may be heavier into next week and be more beneficial.

OVERALL FAVORABLE WEATHER IN ARGENTINA

Soil moisture in Argentina is still rather good for early growth on corn and sunflowers. Soils are primed for soybean planting which will be increasing this month. Winter wheat has been in really good shape, though consistent rainfall has increased disease pressure. Multiple fronts will continue to move through this week into next week, which keep conditions overall favorable.

HIGH SOIL MOISTURE FOR MUCH OF EUROPE

Yet another wave of rain moved through western Europe over the weekend and will continue eastward early this week. Drier weather may follow for the eastern half of the continent for the rest of this week and weekend, but systems moving through the Atlantic may produce some additional rain from the UK down through Spain. Weather conditions are still overall favorable for winter wheat establishment in most areas.

REDUCED DROUGHT IN THE BLACK SEA REGION, BUT LIMITED RAINFALL THIS WEEK

Recent showers have improved soil moisture somewhat throughout the Black Sea region, but eastern areas are still dealing with deficits and drought for winter wheat establishment. Limited showers are forecast this week, generally just for western areas that are in better shape anyway. Temperatures are still above normal, delaying dormancy for northern areas. If showers do not come with the warmth, wheat plants will continue growing in some fairly insufficient soil moisture situation. The region will need an active winter to have good wheat prospects for next year.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN AUSTRALIA

Isolated showers moved through eastern Australia over the weekend, but missed other key areas as well. A couple of systems will move through this week, but with limited precipitation that will be beneficial for some areas and miss others. Mixed conditions are still found across the country. With winter wheat and canola continuing to mature, there is less time for benefit before harvest and cotton and sorghum are planted.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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