DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...89 AT 13 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF FLORIDA CITY, FL

LOW THU...11 AT PETER SINKS, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 6PM CST THURSDAY...WILKES-BARRE, PA 1.67 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge across the Central with a trough in the East and another just off the West Coast. The eastern trough will get pushed offshore this weekend and be replaced by the ridge for next week. The western trough will send multiple waves east through the U.S. next week with the largest piece coming through next weekend into the following week. That one is likely to produce a big storm system.

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend but favor the European.

Temperatures will be rising next week, though they should be cooler in the West. A system is likely to for the middle of the week in the Central, followed by a potentially bigger one for next weekend into the following week. That system may bring some slightly cooler air eastward.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Warm and dry conditions are expected into next week, helping finish up some fieldwork for those needing to do it. Scattered showers should develop with a system or two moving through mid week and next weekend.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A cold front moving through brought through a burst of milder air. Warmer air returns over the weekend and increases next week. The weather pattern looks to become more active this weekend and next week with a couple of systems bringing periods of showers through. That will help to increase soil moisture for winter wheat establishment as that process is extended this year thanks to warmer temperatures.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Colder air filling into the region is producing lake-effect showers and some limited snow into the weekend. Warmer temperatures will spread through the region next week. A system will likely move through late next week with some showers, but be followed by a bigger one for next weekend into the following week.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Warm and dry weather continues to be a concern for drought in the region. The weather pattern is forecast to become more active next week, with showers moving through early in the week and possibly again toward the end of the week. However, rainfall amounts do not look heavy. The Mississippi River got a nice boost from rain across the Midwest last week, but the continued dryness may take its toll if the weather pattern doesn't improve rain chances in the region.

BRAZIL (WHEAT/SOYBEANS/CORN): A front stalled in central Brazil will continue showers through next week and the forecast is signaling heavy rain. But so far, the rain has not been heavy or near the forecast amounts, especially in Mato Grosso, the largest production state for both soybeans and corn. If rain continues to come at a disappointing clip, soybeans will have issues with below-normal soil moisture and put the crop at risk of a dry stretch later in the season. Southern areas have been too wet, but rainfall through next week is a bit more limited. That is more favorable for developing corn and soybeans there.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Recent cool air has led to uneven growth for wheat and corn thus far, but rainfall has come at a relatively steady pace. The milder temperatures are helping to keep heat stress more limited, though. With soybean planting increasing in November, frequent frontal passages have been allowing for good soil moisture to continue and will be in mostly favorable condition. This pattern looks to continue for a while and remain favorable.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Several systems have moved through Europe this week, which produced widespread precipitation. That included Spain, which got some needed rain on Wednesday for winter wheat establishment. The weather pattern continues to be busy next week as well. This should be overall favorable for most areas.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Western Russia has been very dry this fall, leading to poor conditions for winter wheat establishment. Ukraine has seen fairly good rainfall and conditions are better there. The weather pattern has become a bit busier this week, bringing through areas of beneficial showers that will continue into the weekend. A busy pattern is expected for Europe next week, but may include Ukraine with some chances for rain. Western Russia may be drier, though. However, it is getting late for precipitation to have much of an impact on improving conditions as average temperatures continue to fall through November and crops will be shutting down for the winter over the next few weeks.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SORGHUM): A system is moving through eastern areas with areas of showers into the weekend and more rain may move through eastern areas next week as well. Any rain will be largely too late for winter wheat and canola, but should help to maintain or even improve soil moisture for early cotton and sorghum.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers have been frequent in south-central China lately, favorable for winter wheat and canola establishment. With another round of showers moving through early next week, overall favorable conditions continue for winter crop establishment.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

East: Lake-effect showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry through Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal through Sunday, near to above normal Monday, above normal Tuesday.

East: Lake-effect showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal through Monday, near to above normal Tuesday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures variable through Sunday, near to above normal Monday, above normal Tuesday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Sunday. Temperatures above normal Wednesday-Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Friday. Isolated showers Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near normal through Tuesday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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