Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A disruption to an overall warmer pattern in the U.S., a forecast of heavy rainfall in central Brazil that really needs it, and continued active weather in Argentina are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

COLDER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND IN THE MIDWEST

Colder air filling into the Midwest is producing lake-effect showers and some limited snow into the weekend. Warmer temperatures will spread through the region next week. A system will likely move through late next week with some showers, but be followed by a bigger one for next weekend into the following week.

ACTIVE WEATHER STARTING BACK UP IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND

A cold front brought through a burst of milder air to the Central and Southern Plains. Warmer air returns over the weekend and increases next week. The weather pattern looks to become more active this weekend and next week with a couple of systems bringing periods of showers through. That will help to increase soil moisture for winter wheat establishment as that process is extended this year thanks to warmer temperatures.

WARM AND DRY FOR NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NEXT WEEK

Warm and dry conditions are expected for the Northern Plains into next week, helping finish up some fieldwork for those needing to do it. Scattered showers should develop with a system or two moving through midweek and next weekend.

DRYNESS AND DROUGHT PROBLEMS CONTINUE FOR DELTA DESPITE SOME RAIN ON MONDAY

Warm and dry weather continues to be a concern for drought in the Delta. The weather pattern is forecast to become more active next week, with showers moving through early in the week and possibly again toward the end of the week. However, rainfall amounts do not look heavy. The Mississippi River got a nice boost from rain across the Midwest last week, but the continued dryness may take its toll if the weather pattern doesn't improve rain chances in the region.

CENTRAL BRAZIL FORECAST FOR NEEDED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT WEEK

A front stalled in central Brazil will continue showers through next week and the forecast is signaling heavy rain. But so far, the rain has not been heavy or near the forecast amounts, especially in Mato Grosso, the largest production state for both soybeans and corn. If rain continues to come at a disappointing clip, soybeans will have issues with below-normal soil moisture and put the crop at risk of a dry stretch later in the season. Southern areas have been too wet, but rainfall through next week is a bit more limited. That is more favorable for developing corn and soybeans there.

FREQUENT STORMS BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO ARGENTINA

Recent cool air has led to uneven growth for wheat and corn in Argentina thus far, but rainfall has come at a relatively steady pace. The milder temperatures are helping to keep heat stress more limited, though. With soybean planting increasing in November, frequent frontal passages have been allowing for good soil moisture to continue and will be in mostly favorable condition. This pattern looks to continue for a while and remain favorable.

WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVING THROUGH EUROPE THROUGH NEXT WEEK

Several systems have moved through Europe this week, which produced widespread precipitation. That included Spain, which got some needed rain on Wednesday for winter wheat establishment. The weather pattern continues to be busy next week as well. This should be overall favorable for most areas.

SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH BLACK SEA REGION A BIT LATE TO BE HELPFUL

Western Russia has been very dry this fall, leading to poor conditions for winter wheat establishment. Ukraine has seen fairly good rainfall and conditions are better there. The weather pattern has become a bit busier this week, bringing through areas of beneficial showers that will continue into the weekend. A busy pattern is expected for Europe next week, but may include Ukraine with some chances for rain. Western Russia may be drier, though. However, it is getting late for precipitation to have much of an impact on improving conditions as average temperatures continue to fall through November and crops will be shutting down for the winter over the next few weeks.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH AUSTRALIA HELPFUL FOR SUMMER CROPS

A system is moving through eastern Australia with areas of showers into the weekend and more rain may move through eastern areas next week as well. Any rain will be largely too late for winter wheat and canola, but should help to maintain or even improve soil moisture for early cotton and sorghum.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS FAVORING WINTER CANOLA AND WHEAT IN CHINA

Scattered showers have been frequent in south-central China lately, favorable for winter wheat and canola establishment. With another round of showers moving through early next week, overall favorable conditions continue for winter crop establishment.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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