DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...91 AT LAKE ELSINORE, CA

LOW WED...9 AT 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF GRAND LAKE, CO

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 6PM CST WEDNESDAY...JUNEAU, AK 0.94 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge across the West and into Canada with a trough in the east and another in the Gulf of Alaska. The eastern trough will get pushed offshore this weekend and be replaced by the ridge for next week. The Gulf of Alaska trough will move more toward the West Coast this weekend and bring multiple waves east through the U.S. next week.

The U.S. and European models are similar until next weekend, where they differ significantly with a trough developing near Hudson Bay. I will use a blend but favor the European.

Temperatures will be rising next week, though they should be cooler in the West and Southeast. A system will probably go through the Gulf Coast states early next week. A system is likely to for the middle of the week in the Central, followed by a potentially bigger one for next weekend.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Warm and dry conditions are expected into next week, helping finish up some fieldwork for those needing to do it. Scattered showers should develop with a system or two moving through mid week and next weekend.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A cold front moving through brought through a burst of milder air. Warmer air returns over the weekend and increases next week. The weather pattern looks to become more active this weekend and next week with a couple of systems bringing periods of showers through. That will help to increase soil moisture for winter wheat establishment as that process is extended this year thanks to warmer temperatures.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A cold front and small system are moved through on Wednesday, producing scattered showers for the region.

Colder air filling in behind the front and system should produce lake-effect showers and some limited snow into the weekend. Warmer temperatures will spread through the region next week. A system will likely move through late next week with some showers, but be followed by a bigger one for next weekend into the following week.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Warm and dry weather continues to be a concern for drought in the region. The weather pattern is forecast to become more active next week, with showers moving through early in the week and possibly again toward the end of the week. The Mississippi River got a nice boost from rain across the Midwest last week, but the continued dryness may take its toll if the weather pattern doesn't improve rain chances in the region.

BRAZIL (WHEAT/SOYBEANS/CORN): A front stalled in central Brazil will continue showers for the rest of the week, and another may do so early next week, but this rain needs to verify. Showers have been coming frequently enough, but amounts have been below normal in central Brazil and have not lived up to the forecast so far, especially in Mato Grosso, the largest production state for both soybeans and corn. If rain continues to come at a disappointing clip, soybeans will have issues with below-normal soil moisture and put the crop at risk of a dry stretch later in the season. Southern areas have been too wet, but rainfall through next week is a bit more limited. That is more favorable for developing corn and soybeans there.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Recent cool air has led to uneven growth for wheat and corn thus far, but rainfall has come at a relatively steady pace so far. The milder temperatures are helping to keep heat stress more limited, though. With soybean planting increasing in November, frequent frontal passages have been allowing for good soil moisture to continue and will be in mostly favorable condition. This pattern looks to continue for a while and remain favorable.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Several systems continue to move through Europe this week, which is producing widespread precipitation. That includes Spain, which got some needed rain on Wednesday for winter wheat establishment. The weather pattern may continue to be busy through next week as well. This should be overall favorable for most areas.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Western Russia has been very dry this fall, leading to poor conditions for winter wheat establishment. Ukraine has seen fairly good rainfall and conditions are better there. The weather pattern is becoming a bit busier this week, bringing through areas of beneficial showers into the weekend. A continued busy pattern is expected next week, though Ukraine has better chances for widespread moderate rain. However, it is getting late for precipitation to have much of an impact on improving conditions as average temperatures continue to fall through November and crops will be shutting down for the winter over the next few weeks.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SORGHUM): It has been a little drier lately, favoring drydown and early harvest of winter wheat and canola. Some disturbances will move through for the rest of this week and produce limited areas of showers, but most areas should stay dry. Any rain will be largely too late for winter wheat and canola, but should help to maintain or even improve soil moisture for early cotton and sorghum.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers have been frequent in south-central China lately, favorable for winter wheat and canola establishment. With a round of showers moving through south-central China over the next couple of days, and another early next week, overall favorable conditions continue for winter crop establishment.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry through Monday. Temperatures near to below normal through Sunday, near to above normal Monday.

East: Lake-effect showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Monday.

Temperatures near to below normal through Monday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures variable through Sunday, near to above normal Monday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Saturday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday-Friday, near to above normal Saturday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near normal through Monday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

(c) Copyright 2026 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.