DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...92 AT YORBA LINDA, CA

LOW TUE...12 AT FRASER, CO

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 6PM CST TUESDAY...SEATTLE, WA 1.32 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge across the West and into Canada with a trough in the Gulf of Alaska. Three disturbances are starting to combine in the East, which will deepen for a few days before pushing offshore this weekend and being replaced by the ridge next week. The Gulf of Alaska trough will move more toward the West Coast this weekend and bring multiple waves east through the U.S. next week.

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend but favor the European.

Temperatures will be rising next week, though they should be cooler in the West and Southeast. A system will probably go through the Gulf Coast states early next week. A bigger storm is looking likely for the Central later next week, but could be delayed until next weekend.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A few showers moved through on Tuesday, but most areas stayed dry. Warm and dry conditions are expected through the weekend. Scattered showers may develop next week with a system or two moving through.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A cold front moving through on Wednesday will remain dry while bringing through a burst of milder air. Warmer air returns over the weekend and increases next week. The weather pattern looks to become more active this weekend and next week with a couple of systems bringing periods of showers through. That will help to increase soil moisture for winter wheat establishment as that process is extended this year thanks to warmer temperatures.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A cold front and small system are moving through on Wednesday, producing scattered showers for the region.

Colder air will fill in behind the front and system, which should produce lake-effect showers and some limited snow into the weekend. Warmer temperatures will spread through the region next week and we could see a bigger storm system moving through later in the week or weekend.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Warm and dry weather continues to be a concern for drought in the region. Some limited showers will move through on Wednesday, but will not be heavy as drought remains a problem. The weather pattern is forecast to become more active next week, with showers moving through early in the weekend and possibly again toward the end of the week. The Mississippi River got a nice boost from rain across the Midwest last week, but the continued dryness may take its toll if the weather pattern doesn't improve rain chances in the region.

BRAZIL (WHEAT/SOYBEANS/CORN): A front stalled in central Brazil will continue showers for the rest of the week, and another may do so early next week, but this rain needs to verify. Showers have been coming frequently enough, but amounts have been below normal in central Brazil and have not lived up to the forecast so far, especially in Mato Grosso, the largest production state for both soybeans and corn. If rain continues to come at a disappointing clip, soybeans will have issues with below-normal soil moisture and put the crop at risk of a dry stretch later in the season. Southern areas have been too wet, but rainfall through next week is a bit more limited. That is more favorable for developing corn and soybeans there.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Recent cool air has led to uneven growth for wheat and corn thus far, but rainfall has come at a relatively steady pace so far. With soybean planting increasing in November, the frequent frontal passages have been allowing for good soil moisture to continue and will be in mostly favorable condition. This pattern looks to continue for a while and remain favorable.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Several systems continue to move through Europe this week, which is producing widespread precipitation. That includes Spain, which really needs the rain for winter wheat establishment. The weather pattern may continue to be busy through next week as well. This should be overall favorable for most areas.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Western Russia has been very dry this fall, leading to poor conditions for winter wheat establishment. Ukraine has seen fairly good rainfall and conditions are better there. The weather pattern is becoming a bit busier this week, bringing through areas of beneficial showers into the weekend. A continued busy pattern is expected next week, though Ukraine has better chances for widespread moderate rain. However, it is getting late for precipitation to have much of an impact on improving conditions as average temperatures continue to fall through November and crops will be shutting down for the winter over the next few weeks.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SORGHUM): It has been a little drier lately, favoring drydown and early harvest of winter wheat and canola. Some disturbances will move through this week and produce limited areas of showers, but most areas should stay dry. Any rain will be largely too late for winter wheat and canola, but should help to maintain or even improve soil moisture for early cotton and sorghum.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers have been frequent in south-central China lately, favorable for winter wheat and canola establishment. With a round of showers moving through south-central China later this week, and another early next week, overall favorable conditions continue for winter crop establishment.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers overnight. Temperatures above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers early Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Sunday.

Temperatures above normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Sunday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday. Lake-effect showers Friday-Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures above normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Sunday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Mostly dry Monday-Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Tuesday, above normal Wednesday-Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Isolated to scattered showers Saturday night-Sunday. Temperatures above normal Wednesday, variable Thursday-Sunday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures variable Monday, above normal Tuesday-Friday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday.

Isolated showers Sunday. Temperatures near normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near normal through Sunday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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