Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A disruption to an overall warmer pattern in the U.S., a forecast of better rainfall in central Brazil that needs to verify, and continued active weather in Argentina are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

SYSTEM FOLLOWED BY COLDER AIR IN MIDWEST

A cold front and small system are moving through the Midwest on Wednesday, producing scattered showers for the region. Colder air will fill in behind the front and system, which should produce lake-effect showers and some limited snow into the weekend. Warmer temperatures will spread through the region next week, and we could see a bigger storm system moving through later in the week or weekend.

DRYNESS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, BECOMING MORE ACTIVE THIS WEEKEND

A cold front moving through the Central and Southern Plains on Wednesday will remain dry while bringing through a burst of milder air. Warmer air returns next week. The weather pattern looks to become more active this weekend and next week with a couple of systems bringing periods of showers through. That will help to increase soil moisture for winter wheat establishment as that process is extended this year thanks to warmer temperatures.

OVERALL WARM AND DRY FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

A few showers moved through the Northern Plains on Tuesday, but most areas stayed dry. Warm and dry conditions are expected through the weekend. Scattered showers may develop next week with a system or two moving through.

DRYNESS AND DROUGHT PROBLEMS CONTINUE FOR DELTA

Warm and dry weather continues to be a concern for drought in the Delta. Some limited showers will move through on Wednesday, but will not be heavy as drought remains a problem. The weather pattern is forecast to become more active next week, with showers moving through early in the weekend and possibly again toward the end of the week. The Mississippi River got a nice boost from rain across the Midwest last week, but the continued dryness may take its toll if the weather pattern doesn't improve rain chances in the region.

CENTRAL BRAZIL FORECAST TO SEE GOOD RAINFALL, BUT WILL NEED TO VERIFY

A front stalled in central Brazil will continue showers for the rest of the week, and another may do so early next week, but this rain needs to verify. Showers have been coming frequently enough, but amounts have been below normal in central Brazil and have not lived up to the forecast so far, especially in Mato Grosso, the largest production state for both soybeans and corn. If rain continues to come at a disappointing clip, soybeans will have issues with below-normal soil moisture and put the crop at risk of a dry stretch later in the season. Southern areas have been too wet, but rainfall through next week is a bit more limited. That is more favorable for developing corn and soybeans there.

FREQUENT STORMS BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO ARGENTINA

Recent cool air has led to uneven growth for wheat and corn in Argentina thus far, but rainfall has come at a relatively steady pace so far. With soybean planting increasing in November, the frequent frontal passages have been allowing for good soil moisture to continue and will be in mostly favorable condition. This pattern looks to continue for a while and remain favorable.

WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVING THROUGH EUROPE

Several systems continue to move through Europe this week, which is producing widespread precipitation. That includes Spain, which really needs the rain for winter wheat establishment. The weather pattern may continue to be busy through next week as well. This should be overall favorable for most areas.

SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH BLACK SEA REGION A BIT LATE TO BE HELPFUL

Western Russia has been very dry this fall, leading to poor conditions for winter wheat establishment. Ukraine has seen fairly good rainfall and conditions are better there. The weather pattern is becoming a bit busier this week, bringing through areas of beneficial showers into the weekend. A continued busy pattern is expected next week, though Ukraine has better chances for widespread moderate rain. However, it is getting late for precipitation to have much of an impact on improving conditions as average temperatures continue to fall through November and crops will be shutting down for the winter over the next few weeks.

WINTER CROPS MATURING IN AUSTRALIA IN GOOD CONDITION

It has been a little drier in Australia lately, favoring drydown and early harvest of winter wheat and canola. Some disturbances will move through this week and produce limited areas of showers, but most areas should stay dry. Any rain will be largely too late for winter wheat and canola, but should help to maintain or even improve soil moisture for early cotton and sorghum.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS FOR WINTER CANOLA AND WHEAT IN CHINA

Scattered showers have been frequent in south-central China lately, favorable for winter wheat and canola establishment. With a round of showers moving through south-central China later this week, and another early next week, overall favorable conditions continue for winter crop establishment.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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