DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge across most of North America with a trough in the Northeast and another in the Gulf of Alaska. The Gulf of Alaska trough will send a pieces of energy east through the U.S. this week, which will deepen for a brief period in the East before pushing offshore this weekend and being replaced by the ridge. The Gulf of Alaska trough will move into the West this weekend and multiple waves will bring energy east through the U.S. next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend but favor the European.

Temperatures will be cool in the East and warm in the West to start the weekend, but warmer air will spread east through the country while the West cools down. Some energy will move from the West into the Central next week, resulting in areas of showers. A bigger system may be possible toward the end of next week in the Central.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...94 AT YORBA LINDA, CA

LOW SUN...12 AT LEADVILLE, CO

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 6PM CST SUNDAY...BROWNSVILLE, TX 3.65 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge across most of North America with a trough in the Northeast and another in the Gulf of Alaska. The Gulf of Alaska trough will send a pieces of energy east through the U.S. this week, which will deepen for a brief period in the East before pushing offshore this weekend and being replaced by the ridge. The Gulf of Alaska trough will move into the West this weekend and multiple waves will bring energy east through the U.S. next week.

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend but favor the European.

Temperatures will be cool in the East and warm in the West to start the weekend, but warmer air will spread east through the country while the West cools down. Some energy will move from the West into the Central next week, resulting in areas of showers. A bigger system may be possible toward the end of next week in the Central.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): It was warm and dry over the weekend. Outside of a few showers moving through on Tuesday, that should remain the case through the weekend. Scattered showers may be more frequent next week as the weather pattern turns more active.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): It was largely warm and dry over the weekend, though some showers went through Texas. A cold front moving through on Tuesday night and Wednesday is expected to remain dry while bringing through a brief burst of milder air. Warmer air returns at the end of the week. The weather pattern looks to become more active next week with more periods of showers moving through, helping to increase soil moisture for winter wheat establishment.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Some more areas saw frost over the weekend, but it continues to be fairly warm for early November. However, we will see a cold front moving through on Wednesday. A system forming along it could produce widespread showers into Thursday. Colder air will fill in behind the front and system, which may be cool enough to produce lake-effect showers and some limited snow into the weekend. However, warmer temperatures will spread through the region going into next week.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): It was a little cooler over the weekend, but warm and dry weather continues to be a concern for drought in the region. Some limited showers will move through on Wednesday, but will not be heavy as drought remains a problem. The weather pattern is forecast to become more active next week, but may take until the end of the week to get showers into this area.

BRAZIL (WHEAT/SOYBEANS/CORN): Scattered showers developed over the weekend for both southern and central Brazil, but amounts were more limited in central Brazil, especially in Mato Grosso. A front stalling there could continue showers throughout the week, and another system may enhance showers at the end of the week, but this rain needs to verify. Showers have been coming frequently enough, but amounts have been below normal in central Brazil. If they continue to come at a below-normal clip, soybeans will continue to have issues with below-normal soil moisture and put the crop at risk of a dry stretch later in the season. Southern areas continue to have a bit too much rainfall, which is causing concerns for water logging, nutrient leaching, and weed pressure.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Areas of showers went through over the weekend and brought in another round of cooler air. Recent cool air has led to uneven growth for wheat and corn thus far. With soybean planting increasing in November, the frequent frontal passages have been allowing for good soil moisture to continue and will be in mostly favorable condition. This pattern looks to continue for a while yet.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Some isolated showers moved through over the weekend.

Several systems moving through this week should produce more widespread precipitation across the continent, including over Spain, which really needs the rain for winter wheat establishment. The weather pattern may continue to be busy through next week as well. This should be overall favorable for most areas.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Some limited showers moved through over the weekend, but western Russia has been very dry this fall, leading to poor conditions for winter wheat establishment. The weather pattern will become a bit busier this week, bringing through areas of beneficial showers. However, it is getting late for precipitation to have much of an impact on improving conditions as average temperatures continue to fall through November and crops will be shutting down for the winter over the next few weeks.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SORGHUM): It was overall dry this weekend, favoring drydown and early harvest of winter wheat and canola. Some disturbances will move through this week and produce limited areas of showers, but most areas should stay dry. Any rain will be largely too late for winter wheat and canola, but should help to maintain or even improve soil moisture for early cotton and sorghum.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers went through central China over the weekend, favorable for winter wheat and canola development, but causing some delays to what remains of corn and soybean harvest. With another round of showers moving through south-central China later this week, overall favorable conditions continue for winter crops.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry through Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures above normal through Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Friday.

East: Mostly dry through Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Temperatures above normal through Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday, below normal Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers east Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday, above normal Monday-Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers in Texas. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Temperatures above normal through Wednesday, near normal Thursday-Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Saturday. Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Wednesday. Temperatures above normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures below normal Monday-Tuesday, near normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near to below normal through Friday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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