DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the background across most of North America. There is a small trough in the Midwest with another in the Southern Plains. Both troughs will move eastward for the rest of the week. Another trough is up around Alaska and will send additional troughs and disturbances across North America through next week. This pattern is fairly textbook during El Nino and should be very frequent over the next several months.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend but favor the European.

It is forecast to be fairly quiet and dry across much of the U.S. for next week. Models have just grabbed onto a front moving through the Great Lakes and Northeast that could bring in a very brief burst of mild to cool air, but that is uncertain to happen. Otherwise, expect temperatures to remain well above normal with the background ridge in place and Pacific air flooding the continent. A system is likely to move into the West next weekend that could mean a significant storm for the following week.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...91 AT 7 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HIDALGO, TX, AND 8 MILES WEST OF MILES CITY, FL

LOW WED...11 AT 32 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BYNUM, MT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 6PM CST WEDNESDAY...NASHVILLE, TN 2.55 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the background across most of North America. There is a small trough in the Midwest with another in the Southern Plains. Both troughs will move eastward for the rest of the week. Another trough is up around Alaska and will send additional troughs and disturbances across North America through next week. This pattern is fairly textbook during El Nino and should be very frequent over the next several months.

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend but favor the European.

It is forecast to be fairly quiet and dry across much of the U.S. for next week. Models have just grabbed onto a front moving through the Great Lakes and Northeast that could bring in a very brief burst of mild to cool air, but that is uncertain to happen. Otherwise, expect temperatures to remain well above normal with the background ridge in place and Pacific air flooding the continent. A system is likely to move into the West next weekend that could mean a significant storm for the following week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): It should be much drier across the region through next week. It will also be warmer as well. That combination will allow for much more fieldwork to be done.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Though some showers will fall around Oklahoma on Thursday, and a few showers will move through Texas over the weekend, it will be drier and warmer through next week.

The recent precipitation is slowing down fieldwork progress a touch, but is helping to increase soil moisture for winter wheat, and may help to reduce drought across parts of the south.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): The remnants of a low-pressure system continue to shift through the region over the next couple of days, but any rain should be rather light. Despite some delays to fieldwork from this week's system, soil moisture should be improving for some areas that grow winter wheat, and should help with the drought in some areas of the region. And these delays are likely to be short with warm and dry weather likely through most of next week.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): A front moved through this week with widespread moderate precipitation that should help with water levels on the Mississippi River, but massive rainfall deficits continue to be in place across most of the region. The overall El Nino pattern that is unfolding should be beneficial to the region over the next several months, but it should remain a drier period through next week.

BRAZIL (WHEAT/SOYBEANS/CORN): Showers across central Brazil are not falling at the coverage or intensity that models are predicting, or producers would prefer to see at this time of year. Monsoon showers should be picking up, but have yet to really do so. Much of the rain that has fallen over the last 6-8 weeks has come via fronts moving through the country. That has led to heavy rainfall across the south, but weakening rainfall across the central, and soil moisture is on the low side for early soybean growth. Overall, fronts are still expected to produce much of the rain for the first half of November, and there will be several over the next 10 days, and there could be enough rain to at least keep conditions from becoming too poor for developing soybeans. But soil moisture sits on the edge of being just enough and too dry. A turn drier could have a significant impact on developing soybeans. Meanwhile, southern areas are getting enough rain to have good conditions, but some areas are too wet, increasing the risks of diseases, weeds, and flooding issues.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front pushed through this week and another will move through this weekend, bringing widespread light showers through the country. We will probably see more showers next week as well.

Overall, soil moisture is favorable, though cooler temperatures behind fronts have led to uneven growth for wheat and corn. Soybean planting will increase throughout the month of November and could be helped by the frequent frontal passages. As long as the rain continues at a good pace, conditions will be favorable for future growth.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): A system moved through the eastern Mediterranean Sea with scattered showers for Italy and southeastern Europe earlier this week, the latter of which really needed the rain. A complicated weather pattern is bringing some batches of showers to western Europe over the next few days, which could still use some more soil moisture for winter wheat establishment, especially in Spain. A better chance for widespread rain across the continent will move through next week.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Showers have been somewhat frequent in Ukraine this fall, but western Russia has been very dry. A system moving through the Black Sea is bringing some limited areas of showers through the region into the weekend, but is not forecast to produce widespread heavy rain that western Russia needs. It is getting late for precipitation to have much of an impact on improving conditions as average temperatures continue to fall through November and crops will be shutting down for the winter over the next month from north to south.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SORGHUM): It should be drier for the rest of the week, though showers will be possible near the east coast into the weekend. A system will likely move through next week with scattered showers in the east as well. More of the winter wheat and canola are heading toward maturity and rainfall will be less helpful going forward for winter crops. Any rain would be more beneficial for improving soil moisture for summer crops, though.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Favorable rain has been falling across south-central China lately, improving soil moisture for winter wheat and canola. Additional rain is forecast there this weekend. Corn and soybean areas farther north have been much drier, and while some showers will go through some areas this weekend, good harvest weather largely continues for finishing up harvest.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers north. Temperatures above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry through Monday. Temperatures above normal Thursday, near normal Friday-Saturday, above normal Sunday-Monday.

East: Isolated showers Thursday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Monday.

Temperatures above normal Thursday, near normal Friday-Saturday, near to above normal Sunday, above normal Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday-Saturday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday, above normal Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday-Saturday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday-Saturday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday, below normal Saturday-Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday, near to below normal Sunday-Monday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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