Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A system moving through the U.S. with widespread rain, but a drier period behind it, below-normal rainfall in central Brazil, and heavy rain in southern Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH MIDWEST WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS

A system continues to shift through the Midwest over the next couple of days, though most of the precipitation will exit with the cold front moving through on Wednesday. Despite some delays to fieldwork, soil moisture should be improving for some areas that grow winter wheat, and should help with the drought in some areas of the region. Drier and continued warm weather is expected for next week.

GETTING DRIER IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A system produced widespread rain over the last several days in the Central and Southern Plains. Though some showers will fall around Oklahoma on Thursday, and across Texas over the weekend, it will be drier through next week. The recent precipitation will slow down fieldwork progress a touch, but is helping to increase soil moisture for winter wheat, and may help to reduce drought across parts of the south.

WITH RAIN EXITING WEDNESDAY, DRIER CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

A system is still getting some showers into the far eastern Dakotas on Wednesday, but it should be much drier across the Northern Plains through next week. It will also be warmer. That combination will allow for much more fieldwork to be done.

DESPITE RECENT RAIN, DRYNESS PROBLEMS CONTINUE FOR DELTA

A front moved through the Delta on Tuesday night with widespread moderate precipitation that should help with water levels on the Mississippi River. But massive deficits continue to be in place across most of the region. The overall El Nino pattern that is unfolding should be beneficial to the region over the next several months.

BELOW-NORMAL RAINFALL CONTINUES IN CENTRAL BRAZIL

Showers across central Brazil are not falling at the coverage or intensity that producers would prefer to see at this time of year. Monsoon showers should be picking up, but have yet to really do so. Much of the rain that has fallen over the last 6-8 weeks has come via fronts moving through the country. That has led to heavy rainfall across the south, but weakening rainfall across the central, and soil moisture is on the low side for early soybean growth. Overall, fronts are still expected to produce much of the rain for the first half of November, and there will be several over the next 10 days, and there could be enough rain to at least keep conditions from becoming too poor for developing soybeans. But soil moisture sits on the edge of being just enough and too dry. A turn drier could have a significant impact on developing soybeans. Meanwhile, southern areas are getting enough rain to have good conditions, but some areas are a bit too wet, increasing the risks of diseases, weeds and flooding issues.

THOUGH COOL, FAVORABLE RAIN MOVING THROUGH ARGENTINA

A couple of fronts are pushing through Argentina this week with scattered showers. Overall, soil moisture is favorable, though cooler temperatures behind fronts have led to uneven growth for wheat and corn. Soybean planting will increase throughout the month of November, and could be helped by the frequent frontal passages. As long as the rain continues at a good pace, conditions will be favorable for future growth.

COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN OVER EUROPE THROUGH WEEKEND

A system in the eastern Mediterranean Sea produced scattered showers for Italy and southeastern Europe over the last several days, the latter of which really needed the rain. A complicated weather pattern may bring some areas of showers to western Europe over the next few days, which could still use some more soil moisture for winter wheat establishment. A better chance for widespread rain across the continent will move through next week.

SOILS STILL DRY IN WESTERN RUSSIA AND NEED RAIN

Showers have been somewhat frequent in Ukraine this fall, but western Russia has been very dry. A system moving through the Black Sea may bring some showers through the region this week, but is not forecast to produce widespread heavy rain that western Russia needs. It is getting late for precipitation to have much of an impact on improving conditions as average temperatures continue to fall through November and crops will be shutting down for the winter over the next month from north to south.

RAINFALL IN AUSTRALIA BECOMING LESS BENEFICIAL AS WINTER CROPS MATURE

Some showers moved through Australia over the last several days, but were mostly light. It should be drier for the rest of the week, though showers will be possible near the east coasts. A system will likely move through next week with scattered showers in the east as well. More of the winter wheat and canola are heading toward maturity and rainfall will be less helpful going forward for winter crops. Any rain would be more beneficial for improving soil moisture for summer crops, though.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS FOR CANOLA AND WHEAT IN CHINA

Favorable rain has been falling across south-central China lately, improving soil moisture for winter wheat and canola. Additional rain is forecast there this weekend. Corn and soybean areas farther north have been much drier, which should continue good harvest weather to finish up.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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