DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the Central and East with a trough in the West. The trough will be moving east through the country this week. But the pattern is taking on the shape it usually does during El Nino. A ridge should be fairly persistent across Canada while a trough builds in the Gulf of Alaska. That trough will send pieces of energy across the southern tier of the U.S. later this week, weekend, and next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The U.S. and European models are similar, though the European model is a bit cooler overall. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A system will move through like a clipper this weekend, shooting down from the Northern Plains through the Midwest with scattered showers and a small burst of near-normal temperatures. Temperatures should be rising after that system moves off the East Coast by the middle of next week. The next system will likely move into the West around the middle of next week and move east through the U.S. later in the week and weekend.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...94 AT 7 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HIDALGO, TX

LOW SUN...13 AT MT WASHINGTON, NH

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 6PM CST SUNDAY...FLAGSTAFF, AZ 3.39 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the Central and East with a trough in the West. The trough will be moving east through the country this week. But the pattern is taking on the shape it usually does during El Nino. A ridge should be fairly persistent across Canada while a trough builds in the Gulf of Alaska. That trough will send pieces of energy across the southern tier of the U.S. later this week, weekend, and next week.

The U.S. and European models are similar, though the European model is a bit cooler overall. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A system will move through like a clipper this weekend, shooting down from the Northern Plains through the Midwest with scattered showers and a small burst of near-normal temperatures. Temperatures should be rising after that system moves off the East Coast by the middle of next week. The next system will likely move into the West around the middle of next week and move east through the U.S. later in the week and weekend.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system is spreading rain showers across the region through early Tuesday before pushing eastward. Though some showers may also go through on Saturday, it will likely be dry after Tuesday, leaving most areas in good shape to continue what remains of fieldwork.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A system moving through on Monday is producing organized showers and thunderstorms. Some showers may linger into Tuesday, and a very small system may bring showers to some areas on Thursday, but it will be drier for the rest of the week after the system passes through. The precipitation will slow down fieldwork progress, but is helping to increase soil moisture for winter wheat, and may help to reduce drought across the south.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers moved through over the weekend, but were generally light outside of Iowa and Illinois.

However, a bigger system will move through in a couple of different waves throughout the week. Most of the precipitation will fall through Wednesday.

Despite some delays to fieldwork, soil moisture should improve for some areas that grow winter wheat, and should help with the drought in some areas of the region.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Scattered showers moved through over the weekend and resulted in a couple of pockets of heavier rain, but water levels continue to be fairly low on the Mississippi River. However, a front that moves through on Tuesday night should bring more widespread precipitation not only into the region, but also across the Midwest, which should help with water levels on the Mississippi to at least some degree. The overall El Nino pattern that is unfolding should be beneficial to the region over the next several months as well.

BRAZIL (WHEAT/SOYBEANS/CORN): Scattered showers fell across central Brazil over the weekend, but not at the coverage or intensity that producers would prefer to see at this time of year. Monsoon showers should be picking up, but have yet to really do so. Much of the rain that has fallen over the last 6-8 weeks has come via fronts moving through the country. That has led to heavy rainfall across the south, but weakening rainfall across the central, and soil moisture is on the low side for early soybean growth. Overall, fronts are still expected to produce much of the rain the first half of November, but there could be enough rain to at least keep conditions from becoming too poor for developing soybeans.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Some isolated showers moved through Argentina over the weekend, but were not heavy. A couple of fronts will continue to push through the country this week with scattered showers. Overall, soil moisture is favorable, though cooler temperatures behind fronts have led to uneven growth for wheat and corn. Soybean planting will increase throughout the month of November, and could be helped by the frequent frontal passages. As long as the rain continues as a good pace, conditions will be favorable for future growth.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): A system developing in the eastern Mediterranean Sea produced scattered showers for Italy and southeastern Europe, the latter of which really needed the rain. The system continues eastward into the Black Sea early this week with continued showers. A complicated weather pattern may bring some areas of showers to western Europe this week as well, which could still use some more soil moisture for winter wheat establishment.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): A few showers went through Ukraine over the weekend, but western Russia stayed mostly dry, which has been the usual weather pattern for the last couple of months overall. A system moving through the Black Sea may bring some showers through this week, but is not forecast to produce widespread heavy rain that western Russia needs. It is getting late for precipitation to have much of an impact on improving conditions as average temperatures continue to fall through November and crops will be shutting down for the winter over the next month from north to south.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Some showers moved through Australia over the weekend, but were light. After showers leave the east Monday or Tuesday, it should be drier for the rest of the week. More of the winter wheat and canola are heading toward maturity and rainfall will be less helpful going forward for winter crops. Any rain would be more beneficial for improving soil moisture for summer crops, though.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Favorable rain fell across south-central China over the weekend, improving soil moisture for winter wheat and canola. Additional favorable rain is forecast there this week and again this weekend. Corn and soybean areas farther north are forecast to be much drier, which should continue good harvest weather overall.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures well above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Scattered showers through Tuesday, north Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Friday.

East: Scattered showers through Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday-Friday.

Temperatures above to well above normal through Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday.

Isolated showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday-Monday, above normal Tuesday-Wednesday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near normal through Friday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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