DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the Central and East with a trough in the West. The trough will continue to develop through the weekend, moving eastward next week.

We may see another trough and system moving across the southern tier of the U.S. next weekend into the following week. Even with the troughs moving through, the ridge remains a dominant feature across North America for early November, especially across Canada. This follows the textbook El Nino storm track and should be a familiar sight through the winter season.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The U.S. and European models are similar, but are different in how they treat next week's system. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A system will move through the country next week with widespread precipitation. There could be strong winds, severe weather, and heavy rain associated with this system. Temperatures should be above normal for most of the country ahead of the system, with some milder air moving eastward behind the system. Even so, temperatures across Canada and the northern U.S. are likely to stay quite warm for early November.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...93 AT 17 MILES EAST OF OCHOPEE, FL

LOW THU...13 AT 19 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JUNTURA, OR, AND 19 MILES NORHTEAST OF KIRK, OR

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT THURSDAY...SAN ANTONIO, TX 0.94 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the Central and East with a trough in the West. The trough will continue to develop through the weekend, moving eastward next week.

We may see another trough and system moving across the southern tier of the U.S. next weekend into the following week. Even with the troughs moving through, the ridge remains a dominant feature across North America for early November, especially across Canada. This follows the textbook El Nino storm track and should be a familiar sight through the winter season.

The U.S. and European models are similar, but are different in how they treat next week's system. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A system will move through the country next week with widespread precipitation. There could be strong winds, severe weather, and heavy rain associated with this system. Temperatures should be above-normal for most of the country ahead of the system, with some milder air moving eastward behind the system. Even so, temperatures across Canada and the northern U.S. are likely to stay quite warm for early November.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Some isolated showers will move back into the region for the weekend, but it will be a system moving through early next week that is likely to produce more widespread and potentially heavy rain and strong winds. This may cause more of a disruption to fieldwork than what we saw over the last week, but should be brief as it is likely to be dry behind this system for the rest of next week. Even with temperatures dropping a bit, above-normal readings are forecast for the first half of November, leading to good fieldwork weather overall.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Some tropical moisture moved into Texas on Thursday and will spread through much of the region over the weekend, but will become disorganized as it does. A much more organized system will move through early next week with widespread precipitation which may include some strong winds, heavy rain, and severe weather. Though disruption to fieldwork looks likely, the system could bring about some better precipitation to combat the ongoing drought and improve soil moisture for winter wheat establishment.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front has stalled in the region and is producing some areas of rain around Iowa, which continues into the weekend. That could be enough to locally slow down harvest progress. But it will be a much bigger system next week that will likely cause a lot more disruption to fieldwork as it brings through widespread and potential for heavy rainfall, strong winds, and severe weather.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Dryness and drought continue to be issues across much of the region, but are allowing fieldwork to finish up.

However, water levels on the Mississippi River are falling and could be a concern in November if the dryness continues. Some showers will likely go through this weekend, but would be mostly light. A system will push through the region next week and could bring some heavier rain, though that is uncertain and may not be enough to turn around the building dryness. It may be widespread enough to help out on the Mississippi River, though.

BRAZIL (WHEAT/SOYBEANS/CORN): A front has stalled in central Brazil, which is producing some decent coverage of showers through at least the weekend. That is sorely needed for soybean planting and establishment, even if rainfall amounts are only near normal for this time of year. Southern areas are drier through the weekend, which is also beneficial as they have been too wet in many areas.

A system will likely move through in the middle of next week as showers return to southern areas and get them wet again. Lifting the front into central Brazil may be tough to do as rainfall coverage and amounts will trend back below normal again.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Some spotty showers have been occurring throughout the week, maintaining mostly good soil moisture throughout the country. Temperatures have been cold, but are rising toward normal for the rest of the week. However, another system moving through next week could lead to more cold air moving in. The recent cold has been causing growth to be slow for winter wheat and corn, but with summer quickly approaching, the risk of cold having a major impact on ongoing crop development is low. Attention should turn to the rainfall forecast more, which may dry out later next week, at least for a short while.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Some isolated showers have been moving through Europe this week, but it has been much drier after last week's good rainfall. However, Spain has been drier. A system building over the eastern Mediterranean could help to bring some rain to Italy and southeastern Europe this weekend into next week, and we may see some showers drift west toward Spain, but much of the continent will remain drier.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Some spotty showers remain possible in Ukraine through the weekend, but western Russia looks to remain drier into early next week. Soil moisture is favorable in Ukraine, but not farther east, which is concerning for winter wheat establishment in Russia. The next chance for a system to move through with widespread rain comes at the second half of next week, but will likely be followed by colder air. It is getting late for precipitation to have much of an impact on improving conditions as average temperatures continue to fall going into November and crops will be shutting down for the winter over the next month from north to south.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A system could bring some showers to eastern areas through the weekend, and some showers may scrape through southeastern zones into early next week. Any rain would be beneficial for filling winter wheat and canola, though benefits are going to be limited as the crop continues to mature. Harvest may start soon in some areas.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Conditions have been favorable in central and northeast China for corn and soybean harvest for quite some time.

Winter wheat and canola in south-central China would benefit from more rain, which is forecast to occur this weekend. Another hit of showers may come early next week followed by more potential next weekend. So, while it has been a bit dry, the forecast is favorable moving into early November.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures well above normal.

East: Isolated showers. Temperatures well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Tuesday.

East: Isolated showers through Monday. Scattered showers Tuesday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures above normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures above normal through Monday, near to above normal Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Wednesday-Friday. Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday-Sunday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal through Sunday, near normal Monday-Tuesday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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