Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A system moving through the U.S. with widespread rain that should pause fieldwork, below-normal rainfall in central Brazil, and heavy rain moving back into southern Brazil next week are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

SOME SHOWERS FOR MIDWEST, BIG SYSTEM NEXT WEEK

A front has stalled in the Midwest and is producing some areas of rain around Iowa, which continues into the weekend. That could be enough to locally slow down harvest progress. But it will be a much bigger system next week that will likely cause a lot more disruption to fieldwork as it brings through widespread and potential for heavy rainfall, strong winds, and severe weather.

TROPICAL MOISTURE, BIG SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Some tropical moisture moved into Texas on Thursday and will spread through much of the Central and Southern Plains over the weekend, but will become disorganized as it does. A much more organized system will move through early next week with widespread precipitation which may include some strong winds, heavy rain, and severe weather. Though disruption to fieldwork looks likely, the system could bring about some better precipitation to combat the ongoing drought and improve soil moisture for winter wheat establishment.

LIMITED AREAS OF SHOWERS IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Some isolated showers will move back into the Northern Plains for the weekend, but it will be a system moving through early next week that is likely to produce more widespread and potentially heavy rain and strong winds. This may cause more of a disruption to fieldwork, but should be brief as it is likely to be dry behind this system for the rest of next week. Even with temperatures dropping a bit, above-normal readings are forecast for the first half of November, leading to good fieldwork weather overall.

DROUGHT GROWING IN DELTA, BUT RAIN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, NEXT WEEK

Dryness and drought continue to be issues across much of the Delta, but are allowing fieldwork to finish up. However, water levels on the Mississippi River are falling and could be a concern in November if the dryness continues. Some showers will likely go through this weekend, but would be mostly light. A system will push through the region next week and could bring some heavier rain, though that is uncertain and may not be enough to turn around the building dryness. It may be widespread enough to help out on the Mississippi River, though.

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL AT BELOW-NORMAL PACE

A front has stalled in central Brazil, which is producing some decent coverage of showers through at least the weekend. That is sorely needed for soybean planting and establishment, even if rainfall amounts are only near or even below normal for this time of year. Southern areas are drier through the weekend, which is also beneficial as they have been too wet in many areas. A system will likely move through in the middle of next week as showers return to southern areas and get them wet again. Lifting the front into central Brazil may be tough to do as rainfall coverage and amounts will trend back below normal again.

CONTINUED SHOWERS IN ARGENTINA, COOL AGAIN NEXT WEEK

Some spotty showers have been occurring in Argentina throughout the week, maintaining mostly good soil moisture throughout the country. Temperatures have been cold, but are rising toward normal for the rest of the week. However, another system moving through next week could lead to more cold air moving in. The recent cold has been causing growth to be slow for winter wheat and corn, but with summer quickly approaching, the risk of cold having a major impact on ongoing crop development is low. Attention should turn to the rainfall forecast more, which may dry out later next week, at least for a short while.

SHOWERS NEAR MEDITERRANEAN SEA, BUT DRIER IN MUCH OF EUROPE

Some isolated showers have been moving through Europe this week, but it has been much drier after last week's good rainfall. However, Spain has been drier. A system building over the eastern Mediterranean could help to bring some rain to Italy and southeastern Europe this weekend into next week, and we may see some showers drift west toward Spain, but much of the continent will remain drier.

WESTERN RUSSIA NEEDS RAIN FOR WINTER WHEAT ESTABLISHMENT

Some spotty showers remain possible in Ukraine through the weekend, but western Russia looks to remain drier into early next week. Soil moisture is favorable in Ukraine, but not farther east, which is concerning for winter wheat establishment in Russia. The next chance for a system to move through with widespread rain comes at the second half of next week, but will likely be followed by colder air. It is getting late for precipitation to have much of an impact on improving conditions as average temperatures continue to fall going into November and crops will be shutting down for the winter over the next month from north to south.

ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH EASTERN AUSTRALIA THIS WEEKEND

A system could bring some showers to eastern Australia through the weekend, and some showers may scrape through southeastern zones into early next week. Any rain would be beneficial for filling winter wheat and canola, though benefits are going to be limited as the crop continues to mature. Harvest may start soon in some areas.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS FOR CANOLA AND WHEAT IN CHINA

Conditions have been favorable in central and northeast China for corn and soybean harvest for quite some time. Winter wheat and canola in south-central China would benefit from more rain, which is forecast to occur this weekend. Another hit of showers may come early next week followed by more potential next weekend. So while it has been a bit dry, the forecast is favorable moving into early November.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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