DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...93 AT 7 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HIDALGO, TX

LOW WED...9 AT PETER SINKS, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT WEDNESDAY...HONOLULU, HI 1.33 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the Central and East with a trough in the West. The trough will continue to develop through the weekend, moving eastward next week.

A trough may move through Canada at the same time next week. We may see another trough and system moving across the southern tier of the U.S. next weekend into the following week. Even with the troughs moving through, the ridge remains a dominant feature across North America for early November, especially across Canada. This follows the textbook El Nino storm track and should be a familiar sight through the winter season.

The U.S. and European models are similar, but are different in how they treat next week's system. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A system will move through the country next week with widespread precipitation. There could be strong winds, severe weather, and heavy rain associated with this system. Temperatures should be above normal for most of the country ahead of the system, with some cooler air moving eastward behind the system.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A couple of dry days are expected before some isolated showers move back into the region for the weekend. A system moving through early next week is likely to bring heavier precipitation and may include some strong winds. This may cause more of a disruption to fieldwork than what we saw over the last week.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Some tropical moisture will move into the south Thursday night and spread through much of the region over the weekend, but will become disorganized as it does. A much more organized system will move through early next week with widespread precipitation which may include some strong winds, heavy rain, and severe weather. Though disruption to fieldwork looks likely, the system could bring about some better precipitation to combat the ongoing drought and improve soil moisture for winter wheat establishment.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front went through the Upper Midwest on Wednesday and continues east on Thursday, bringing scattered showers to the north. Part of the front will hang up across the region for Friday into the weekend, and some showers are forecast to continue as well. That could be enough to locally slow down harvest progress. But it will be a much bigger system next week that will likely cause a lot more disruption to fieldwork as it brings through widespread and potentially heavy rainfall, strong winds, and potential for severe weather.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Dryness and drought continue to be issues across much of the region, but are allowing fieldwork to finish up.

However, water levels on the Mississippi River are falling and could be a concern in November if the dryness continues. Some showers will likely go through this weekend, but would be mostly light. A system is likely to push through the region next week and could bring some heavier rain, though that is uncertain and may not be enough to turn around the building dryness. It may be widespread enough to help out on the Mississippi River, though.

BRAZIL (WHEAT/SOYBEANS/CORN): A front has stalled in central Brazil, which is producing some decent coverage of showers through at least the weekend. That is sorely needed for soybean planting and establishment, even if rainfall amounts are only near normal for this time of year. Southern areas will be much drier, which is also beneficial as they have been too wet in many areas.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Some spotty showers will occur throughout the week, maintaining mostly good soil moisture throughout the country. Temperatures have been cold, but are rising toward normal for the rest of the week. However, another system moving through early next week could lead to more cold air moving in. The recent cold has been causing growth to be slow for winter wheat and corn. With soybean planting starting up in November, producers could push back planting a bit if it remains too chilly.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Some isolated showers have been moving through this week, but it has been much drier after last week's good rainfall outside of Spain, which has been drier. A system building over the eastern Mediterranean could help to bring some rain to Italy and southeastern Europe this weekend into next week, but much of the continent will remain drier.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Some spotty showers remain possible in Ukraine, but western Russia looks to remain drier into early next week. Soil moisture is favorable in Ukraine, but not farther east, which is concerning for winter wheat establishment in Russia. The next chance for a system to move through with widespread rain comes in the second half of next week. It is getting late for precipitation to have much of an impact on improving conditions as average temperatures continue to fall going into November.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A system could bring some showers to eastern areas Friday through the weekend. Any rain would be beneficial for filling winter wheat and canola, though benefits are going to be limited as the crop continues to mature. Harvest may start soon in some areas.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Conditions have been favorable in central and northeast China for corn and soybean harvest for quite some time. Winter wheat and canola in south-central China would benefit from more rain, which is forecast to occur this weekend.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures well above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Monday.

East: Isolated showers through Monday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near normal Thursday-Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Monday. Temperatures above normal through Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Friday. Isolated to scattered showers Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Saturday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers Monday. Temperatures near to below normal through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near to below normal through Sunday, near normal Monday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

(c) Copyright 2026 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.