DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...91 AT 7 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HIDALGO, TX

LOW TUE...14 AT PETER SINKS, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT TUESDAY...CORPUS CHRISTI, TX 0.89 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the Central and East with a trough in the Canadian Prairies and another in the Pacific Northwest. The Prairies trough will continue eastward over the next couple of days, but the ridge will remain intact. Meanwhile, the Pacific Northwest will continue to develop there and into the West through the weekend, moving eastward next week. A trough may move through Canada at the same time next week. Through all the hits, the ridge remains a dominant feature across North America for early November.

The U.S. and European models are similar, but are different in how they treat next week's system. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A system will move through the country next week with widespread precipitation. If the system moves slowly through the country, it would likely produce some areas of heavy rain. Temperatures should be above-normal for most of the country ahead of the system, with some cooler air moving into the West that will move eastward behind next week's system.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Some showers moved through the region earlier this week. A few more isolated showers will be possible on Wednesday. Though there might have been some disruption to fieldwork, there have been some other areas that have stayed relatively dry. There may be some more showers this weekend into early next week that could cause some more disruption as well, but those are uncertain right now.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): After a couple of dry days, some tropical moisture will move into the south Thursday night and spread through much of the region over the weekend, but will become disorganized as it does. A much more organized system will move through early next week with widespread precipitation which may include some heavy rain and severe weather. Though disruption to fieldwork looks likely, the system could bring about some better precipitation to combat the ongoing drought and improve soil moisture for winter wheat establishment.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): It continues to be warm and mostly dry early this week, though a front moving through Wednesday and Thursday will bring some scattered showers to the north. Part of the front will hang up across the region for Friday into the weekend, and some showers are forecast to continue as well. That could be enough to locally slow down harvest progress. But it will be a much bigger system next week that will likely cause a lot more disruption to fieldwork as it brings through widespread and potentially heavy rainfall.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Dryness and drought continue to be issues across much of the region, but are allowing fieldwork to finish up.

However, water levels on the Mississippi River are falling and could be a concern in November if the dryness continues. Some showers will likely go through this weekend, but would be mostly light. A system is likely to push through the region next week and could bring some heavier rain, though that is uncertain and may not be enough to turn around the building dryness. It may be widespread enough to help out on the Mississippi River, though.

BRAZIL (WHEAT/SOYBEANS/CORN): A front has stalled in central Brazil, which will produce some decent coverage of showers throughout the rest of the week. That is sorely needed for soybean planting and establishment, even if rainfall amounts are only near normal for this time of year. Southern areas will be much drier, which is also beneficial as they have been too wet in many areas.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Some spotty showers will occur throughout the week, maintaining mostly good soil moisture throughout the country. Temperatures have been cold, but are rising toward normal for the rest of the week. Recent cold temperatures have been causing growth to be slow for winter wheat and corn. However, another system moving through early next week could lead to more cold air moving in. With soybean planting starting up in November, producers could push back planting a bit if it remains too chilly.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Widespread showers moved across the continent last week and over the weekend, though Spain saw dry conditions, which has been too common this fall. Some isolated showers will move through this week, but it should be much drier. A system building over the eastern Mediterranean could help to bring some rain to Italy and southeastern Europe this weekend into next week, but much of the continent will remain drier.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Some spotty showers remain possible in Ukraine, but western Russia looks to remain drier. Soil moisture is favorable in Ukraine, but not farther east, which is concerning for winter wheat establishment in Russia.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers moved through the eastern half of Australia over the weekend, but ended the run of heavy rain in Queensland, which has seen beneficial rainfall lately. Showers are mostly falling over the Outback over the next couple of days, but a system could bring some showers to eastern areas Friday through the weekend. Any rain would be beneficial for filling winter wheat and canola, though benefits are going to be limited as the crop continues to mature. Harvest may start soon in some areas.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Conditions have been favorable in central and northeast China for corn and soybean harvest for quite some time.

Winter wheat and canola in south-central China would benefit from more rain, which is forecast to occur this weekend.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures above normal through Sunday

East: Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday-Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures above normal through Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday-Wednesday, near normal Thursday-Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers Friday-Sunday. Temperatures above normal through Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Friday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Friday.

Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal through Sunday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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