DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...89 AT 2 MILES NORTH OF INGLESIDE, TX

LOW SUN...12 AT 13 MILES NORTH OF WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS, MT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT SUNDAY...AMARILLO, TX 1.43 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the Central and East with a trough in the Pacific Northwest, a small one moving into the Plains, and another ridge forming over the Gulf of Alaska. The two smaller troughs will move eastward early this week.

Meanwhile, the Gulf of Alaska ridge will pump another trough into the Pacific Northwest this week. That one is forecast to move eastward next week.

The U.S. and European models are similar, but are different in how they treat a system next week. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A very weak system will move through the middle of the country this weekend with some areas of showers. But it should be a system that moves through next week that produces more widespread precipitation. Temperatures should be above-normal for most of the country, with some milder air likely moving into the West next week that could move eastward behind next week's system.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Some showers moved through over the weekend, which continue early this week along with some colder air.

That could produce a few areas of snow as well. Though there might have been some disruption to fieldwork, there have been some other areas that have stayed relatively dry. And some showers early this week should leave with some rather dry weather behind it for the rest of the week, which should allow for some more fieldwork.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front moved into the region over the weekend with scattered showers. A system developing along that front will continue showers into Tuesday. Though some will be delayed from doing fieldwork, others will be welcoming the rain for winter wheat establishment. A couple of other systems will be moving in this weekend and next week which could cause further delays as well.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): It was warm and mostly dry this weekend with some showers developing over Minnesota. That should have allowed for a lot of fieldwork to be done over the last week. The small system will move through the northwest with some showers early this week. A front will move through midweek with a few showers and a smaller system could be possible for the weekend as well. Despite all of these opportunities for rain, amounts should be light, allowing for more fieldwork to be done this week.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Dryness and drought continue to be issues across much of the region, but are allowing fieldwork to finish up.

However, water levels on the Mississippi River are falling and could be a concern in November if the dryness continues as forecast.

BRAZIL (WHEAT/SOYBEANS/CORN): A system moved into southern Brazil with heavy rain over the weekend. Heavy rain has been an issue so far this season. The front to the system is moving into central Brazil early this week and will stall. That could allow for some decent coverage of showers throughout the week, which are sorely needed for soybean planting and establishment.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Some spotty showers occurred over the weekend and will be possible again this week. Temperatures have been cold. Though frosts did not occur this weekend, the cold is leading to slower development on wheat and corn. Colder air continues early this week before moderating back to normal for later this week. However, another system moving through early next week could lead to more cold air moving in.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Widespread showers moved across the continent over the weekend, though Spain saw dry conditions, which has been too common this fall. Some isolated showers will move through this week, but it should be much drier. Dryness continues to be an issue in many areas of Europe despite some recent rain.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Though there were a few showers in Ukraine, drier conditions were more common in the Black Sea region this weekend. Some spotty showers remain possible in Ukraine, but western Russia looks to remain drier.

Soil moisture is favorable in Ukraine, but not farther east, which is concerning for winter wheat establishment.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers moved through the eastern half of Australia over the weekend, but will end the run of rain in Queensland, which has benefited from recent rain. Showers will mostly fall over the Outback this week, but a system later this week could bring some showers to eastern areas Friday through the weekend. Any rain would be beneficial for filling winter wheat and canola.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Typhoon Champi barely made it to the central China coast over the weekend, which meant that much of central and northeast China stayed dry and allowed for corn and soybean harvest. Winter wheat and canola in south-central China would benefit from more rain, but that is not forecast until maybe the coming weekend.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers north. Temperatures above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers through Friday. Temperatures above normal through Friday.

East: Mostly dry through Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday-Friday.

Temperatures above normal through Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday.

Temperatures above normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers Friday. Temperatures above normal through Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Temperatures above normal Saturday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures below normal Monday-Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near to below normal through Friday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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