Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Favorable harvest weather in the U.S. with a minor disruption, more heavy rain in southern Brazil, and continued chilly temperatures in Argentina are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

WARM AND LARGELY DRY IN THE MIDWEST

Warm and dry weather continues to promote fieldwork across the Midwest. There are still some drier areas out there where winter wheat is typically planted, which could be somewhat of a concern. A front will move into western areas this weekend where some showers may occur. A system developing along that front will bring showers through the region early next week, and another system will quickly follow it for the middle of next week. But coverage and amounts look spotty as fieldwork should continue to progress quickly.

MINOR DISRUPTION MOVING INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Overall warm and dry weather has been favorable for fieldwork in most of the Central and Southern Plains this week. A system is moving into the Northern Plains on Friday and its cold front will move into the region and stall, which will produce some areas of showers over the weekend and into early next week. Despite the disruption, the forecast should favor more fieldwork through the end of the month. Drought remains a problem in the region, even after the recent bouts of heavy precipitation, but soil moisture is still largely favorable for winter wheat establishment. Rain coming this weekend into early next week should also be favorable.

SYSTEM MOVING INTO NORTHERN PLAINS, OTHERS TO FOLLOW NEXT WEEK

A system is moving into the Northern Plains on Friday and will bring some showers, strong winds, and a chance for some snow on the backside of the system across Montana into early Saturday. Showers may continue across the south into early next week as another system goes by to the south. Another system looks like it will move through right behind that one midweek with some showers. Even with the potential for multiple hits, the forecast is calling for only a brief disruption to the overall good fieldwork weather for the rest of the month.

DROUGHT CONTINUES TO GROW IN DELTA, MISSISSIPPI WATER LEVELS FALLING

Dryness and drought continue to be issues across much of the Delta, but are allowing fieldwork to continue. Water levels on the Mississippi River are forecast to continue falling, and could be a concern in early November if the dryness continues as forecast.

MORE HEAVY RAIN IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Recent showers in central Brazil have been enough to encourage more planting and be in relatively fair condition, but have been below normal in both coverage and amounts. Another system moved into southern areas on Wednesday, with showers continuing throughout the weekend. Rain there could be heavy again and include some severe weather, keeping some areas too wet. Meanwhile, showers in central Brazil have been spotty this week. They may increase this weekend into early next week as a front pushes northward. However, it is a little concerning that rainfall has been falling at a below normal pace and intensity so far this season, which is forecast to continue.

CONTINUED COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER IN ARGENTINA

It continues to be cold in Argentina, which has been a concern for quite some time, causing slow growth for wheat and uneven germination for early corn. Despite the cold weather, producers are generally planting at a normal pace for mid-October. Scattered showers this week and more over the weekend will help to maintain soil moisture without being too heavy. But cold air is forecast to be frequent for the next couple of weeks, creating some unfavorable conditions in some areas.

EUROPE SEEING A COUPLE MORE SYSTEMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK

A system pushed through Europe with widespread coverage of showers this week. And another system is following behind it through the weekend, followed by yet another for early next week. That should mean more widespread precipitation and building soil moisture, though Spain is unlikely to see much precipitation. Despite the burst of wetter weather, dryness is still an issue across much of the continent as producers are counting on some good precipitation over the next couple of months for winter wheat establishment.

WESTERN RUSSIA NEEDS RAIN FOR WINTER WHEAT

Spotty showers continue in the Black Sea region for the next few days, but overall drier conditions are forecast into next week. A system may stall out near the Black Sea next weekend as the next best chance for widespread showers. Western areas like Ukraine have had some good rainfall lately while western Russia has not, creating mixed conditions for winter wheat planting and establishment.

SOME FAVORABLE RAIN FOR PARTS OF AUSTRALIA

Scattered showers continue in Queensland as a rare wet weather pattern has gripped that area of Australia this week. A front will push through southern and eastern areas this weekend into early next week. That should bring some meaningful rainfall, but conditions are forecast to dry out behind the front next week. Precipitation has been below normal for a lot of the spring, but may have come at just the right time to produce good yields in a lot of areas. Satellite images over the country continue to show overall fair crop health as wheat and canola continue to fill.

CHINA WATCHING TYPHOON CHAMPI DIE OFF THE COAST THIS WEEKEND

Typhoon Champi is running into Taiwan on Friday before moving into the central China coast this weekend. That should be enough to slow it down and significantly diminish its strength and coverage of showers. Overall, conditions are fair for corn and soybean harvest as well as winter wheat and canola establishment. However, the latter could use some more rain.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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