DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...92 AT SEGUIN, TX

LOW THU...17 AT 5 MILES EAST OF DAVIS, WV

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT THURSDAY...FLAGSTAFF, AZ 1.23 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the Central and East with a trough in the West and another in western Canada. The Western trough is splitting into two pieces. One piece is moving northeast into the Canadian Prairies where it is meeting the other trough before they both push east over the weekend. A smaller, secondary piece will continue eastward through the U.S. early next week. Another little trough will move into the Pacific Northwest early next week and push eastward across the U.S. around the middle of next week. Right behind that, another trough will build over Canada while another moves onto the West Coast. That should pump up an eastern ridge for later next week and weekend.

The U.S. and European models are similar, but disagree with how much cold air will move in with a system during the middle of next week. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A small system will move eastward through the Midwest on Tuesday with some scattered showers. Another small system will move through right behind it for the middle of next week. A cold front will move through right behind that system. It may or may not produce much precipitation, but could bring through some cooler air, at least to northern areas.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system is moving into the region on Friday and will bring some showers, strong winds, and a chance for some snow on the backside of the system across Montana into early Saturday.

Showers may continue across the south into early next week as another system goes by to the south. Another system looks like it will move through right behind that one midweek with some showers. Even with the potential for multiple hits, the forecast is calling for only be a brief disruption to the overall good fieldwork weather for the rest of the month.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Overall warm and dry weather has been favorable for fieldwork in most areas this week. A system is moving into the Northern Plains on Friday and its cold front will move into the region and stall, which will produce some areas of showers over the weekend and into early next week. Despite the disruption, the forecast should favor more fieldwork through the end of the month. Drought remains a problem in the region, even after the recent bouts of heavy precipitation, but soil moisture is still largely favorable for winter wheat establishment. Rain coming this weekend into early next week should also be favorable.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Warm and dry weather continues to promote fieldwork across the region. There are still some drier areas out there where winter wheat is typically planted, which could be somewhat of a concern. A front will move into western areas this weekend where some showers may occur. A system developing along that front will bring showers through the region early next week, and another system will quickly follow it for the middle of next week, but coverage and amounts look spotty as fieldwork should continue to progress quickly.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Dryness and drought continue to be issues across much of the region, but are allowing fieldwork to continue. Water levels on the Mississippi River are forecast to continue falling, and could be a concern in early November if the dryness continues as forecast.

BRAZIL (WHEAT/SOYBEANS/CORN): Recent showers in central Brazil have been enough to encourage more planting and be in relative fair condition, but have been below normal in both coverage and amounts. Another system moved into southern areas on Wednesday, with showers continuing throughout the weekend. Rain there could be heavy again and include some severe weather, keeping some areas too wet. Meanwhile, showers in central Brazil have been spotty this week. They may increase this weekend into early next week as a front pushes northward.

However, it is a little concerning that rainfall has been falling at a below normal pace and intensity so far this season, which is forecast to continue.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): It continues to be cold in Argentina, which has been a concern for quite some time, causing slow growth for wheat and uneven germination for early corn. Despite the cold weather, producers are generally planting at a normal pace for mid-October. Scattered showers this week and more over the weekend will help to maintain soil moisture without being too heavy.

But cold air is forecast to be frequent for the next couple of weeks, creating some unfavorable conditions in some areas.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): A system pushed through with widespread coverage of showers this week. And another system is following behind it through the weekend, followed by yet another for early next week. That should mean more widespread precipitation and building soil moisture, though Spain is unlikely to see much precipitation. Despite the burst of wetter weather, dryness is still an issue across much of the continent as producers are counting on some good precipitation over the next couple of months for winter wheat establishment.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Spotty showers continue for the next few days, but overall drier conditions are forecast into next week. A system may stall out near the Black Sea next weekend as the next best chance for widespread showers.

Western areas like Ukraine have had some good rainfall lately while western Russia has not, creating mixed conditions for winter wheat planting and establishment.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers continue in Queensland as a rare wet weather pattern has gripped that area this week. A front will push through southern and eastern areas this weekend into early next week. That should bring some meaningful rainfall, but conditions are forecast to dry out behind the front next week. Precipitation has been below-normal for a lot of the spring, but may have come at just the right time to produce good yields in a lot of areas. Satellite images over the country continue to show overall fair crop health as wheat and canola continue to fill.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Typhoon Champi is running into Taiwan on Friday before moving into the central China coast this weekend. That should be enough to slow it down and significantly diminish its strength and coverage of showers. Overall, conditions are fair for corn and soybean harvest as well as winter wheat and canola establishment. However, the latter could use some more rain.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers north through Tuesday. Temperatures above normal through Tuesday.

East: Mostly dry through Monday. Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday.

Temperatures near to above normal through Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Friday, above normal Saturday-Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures above normal through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Wednesday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Sunday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday.

Temperatures near normal through Saturday, below normal Sunday-Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Spotty showers through Saturday. Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday, above normal north and below normal south Sunday, near to below normal Monday-Tuesday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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