Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Favorable harvest weather in the U.S. with a minor disruption, more heavy rain in southern Brazil, and continued chilly temperatures in Argentina are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

WARM AND DRY IN THE MIDWEST

Warm and dry weather continues to promote fieldwork across the Midwest. There are still some drier areas out there where winter wheat is typically planted, which could be somewhat of a concern. A front will move into western areas this weekend where some showers may occur. A system developing along that front may bring showers through the region early next week, but coverage and amounts look spotty as fieldwork should continue to progress quickly.

MINOR DISRUPTION COMING TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Overall warm and dry weather has been favorable for fieldwork in most of the Central and Southern Plains this week. A system will move into the Northern Plains on Friday and its cold front will move into the region and stall, which may produce some areas of showers over the weekend and into early next week. Despite the disruption, the forecast should favor more fieldwork through the end of the month. Drought remains a problem in the region, even after the recent bouts of heavy precipitation, but soil moisture is still largely favorable for winter wheat establishment. Rain coming this weekend into early next week should also be favorable.

SYSTEM MOVING INTO NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY

Warm and dry weather this week has allowed for good fieldwork conditions in the Northern Plains, which continues on Thursday. A system will move into the region on Friday and bring some showers, strong winds, and a chance for some snow on the backside of the system across Montana into early Saturday. Showers may continue across the south into early next week as another system goes by to the south. Another system could be possible toward the end of the week. Even with the potential for multiple hits, this should only be a brief disruption to the overall good fieldwork weather for the rest of the month.

DROUGHT CONTINUES TO GROW IN DELTA, MISSISSIPPI WATER LEVELS FALLING

Dryness and drought continue to be issues across much of the Delta, but are allowing fieldwork to continue. Water levels on the Mississippi River are forecast to continue falling, and could be a concern in early November if the dryness continues as forecast.

HEAVY RAIN IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Recent showers in central Brazil have been enough to encourage more planting and be in relatively fair condition, but have been below normal in coverage and amounts. Southern areas had some time to dry out a bit, which helped some areas that have been too wet to recover. However, another system moved into southern areas on Wednesday, with potential for continuing showers throughout the weekend. Rain there could be heavy again and include some severe weather. Meanwhile, showers in central Brazil have been spotty this week. They may increase this weekend into early next week as a front pushes northward. However, it is a little concerning that rainfall has been falling at a below normal pace and intensity so far this season, which is forecast to continue.

CONTINUED COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER IN ARGENTINA

It continues to be cold in Argentina, which has been a concern for quite some time, causing slow growth for wheat and uneven germination for early corn. Despite the cold weather, producers are generally planting at a normal pace for mid-October. Scattered showers this week should help to maintain soil moisture without being too heavy, but cold air is forecast to be frequent for the next couple of weeks, creating some unfavorable conditions in some areas.

EUROPE SEEING A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK

A system has been pushing eastward through Europe this week, which has brought widespread coverage of showers. More active weather is in the forecast behind it into early next week. That should mean more frequent precipitation in some areas, though Spain is unlikely to see much precipitation. Despite the burst of wetter weather, dryness is still an issue across much of the continent as producers are counting on some good precipitation over the next couple of months for winter wheat establishment.

WESTERN RUSSIA NEEDS RAIN FOR WINTER WHEAT

Spotty showers continue in the Black Sea region for the next day or two, but overall drier conditions are forecast into next week. Western areas like Ukraine have had some good rainfall lately while western Russia has not, creating mixed conditions for winter wheat planting and establishment.

SOME FAVORABLE RAIN FOR PARTS OF AUSTRALIA

Scattered showers continue in Queensland as a rare wet weather pattern has gripped this area of Australia this week. A front will push through southern and eastern areas this weekend into early next week. That should bring some meaningful rainfall, but conditions are forecast to dry out behind the front next week. Precipitation has been below normal for a lot of the spring, but may have come at just the right time to produce good yields in a lot of areas. Satellite images over the country show overall fair crop health as wheat and canola continue to fill.

CHINA WATCHING OUT FOR TYPHOON CHAMPI

Typhoon Champi is forecast to hit Taiwan before moving into central China this weekend. That may be enough to slow it down and significantly diminish its strength. If the forecast remains on track, only small areas near the central China coast would be affected by heavy rain while most of the inland areas would avoid damage. Overall, conditions are fair for corn and soybean harvest as well as winter wheat and canola establishment.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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