DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...96 AT COOLIDGE, AZ

LOW WED...16 AT 32 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BYNUM, MT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT WEDNESDAY...FLAGSTAFF, AZ 0.51 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the Central and East with a trough in the Southwest and another in moving into western Canada. The Southwestern trough will split into two. One piece will move northeast into Canada and meet the Canadian trough over the weekend and then push eastward early next week. A smaller, secondary piece will continue eastward through the U.S. early next week. Another little trough will move into the Pacific Northwest early next week and push eastward across the U.S. around the middle of next week. Toward the end of next week, another trough will build over Canada while another moves onto the West Coast.

That should pump up an eastern ridge for later next week and weekend.

The U.S. and European models are doing a better job at finding small features that will move through the country next week. They are largely in agreement. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A small system will move eastward through the Midwest early next week with some scattered showers. A cold front will likely move across at least northern areas later next week. Temperatures will be rather warm for much of the country, though some dips are likely behind the fronts.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Warm and dry weather this week has allowed for good fieldwork conditions, which continues on Thursday. A system will move into the region on Friday and bring some showers, strong winds, and a chance for some snow on the backside of the system across Montana into early Saturday. Showers may continue across the south into early next week as another system goes by to the south. Another system could be possible toward the end of the week. Even with the potential for multiple hits, this should only be a brief disruption to the overall good fieldwork weather for the rest of the month.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Overall warm and dry weather has been favorable for fieldwork in most areas this week. A system will move into the Northern Plains on Friday and its cold front will move into the region and stall, which may produce some areas of showers over the weekend and into early next week. Despite the disruption, the forecast should favor more fieldwork through the end of the month. Drought remains a problem in the region, even after the recent bouts of heavy precipitation, but soil moisture is still largely favorable for winter wheat establishment. Rain coming this weekend into early next week should also be favorable.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Warm and dry weather continues to promote fieldwork across the region. There are still some drier areas out there where winter wheat is typically planted, which could be somewhat of a concern. A front will move into western areas this weekend where some showers may occur. A system developing along that front may bring showers through the region early next week, but coverage and amounts look spotty as fieldwork should continue to progress quickly.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Dryness and drought continue to be issues across much of the region, but are allowing fieldwork to continue. Water levels on the Mississippi River are forecast to continue falling, and could be a concern in early November if the dryness continues as forecast.

BRAZIL (WHEAT/SOYBEANS/CORN): Recent showers in central Brazil have been enough to encourage more planting and be in relative fair condition, but have been below normal in coverage and amounts. Southern areas had some time to dry out a bit, which helped some areas that have been too wet to recover. However, another system moved into southern areas on Wednesday, with potential for continuing showers throughout the weekend. Rain there could be heavy again and include some severe weather. Meanwhile, showers in central Brazil have been spotty this week. They may increase this weekend into early next week as a front pushes northward. However, it is a little concerning that rainfall has been falling at a below normal pace and intensity so far this season, which is forecast to continue.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): It continues to be cold in Argentina, which has been a concern for quite some time, causing slow growth for wheat and uneven germination for early corn. Despite the cold weather, producers are generally planting at a normal pace for mid-October. Scattered showers this week should help to maintain soil moisture without being too heavy, but cold air is forecast to be frequent for the next couple of weeks, creating some unfavorable conditions in some areas.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): A system has been pushing eastward this week, which has brought widespread coverage of showers. More active weather is in the forecast behind it into early next week. That should mean more frequent precipitation in some areas, though Spain is unlikely to see much precipitation. Despite the burst of wetter weather, dryness is still an issue across much of the continent as producers are counting on some good precipitation over the next couple of months for winter wheat establishment.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Spotty showers continue for the next few days, but overall drier conditions are forecast into next week. Western areas like Ukraine have had some good rainfall lately while western Russia has not, creating mixed conditions for winter wheat planting and establishment.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers continue in Queensland as a rare wet weather pattern has gripped this area this week. A front will push through southern and eastern areas this weekend into early next week. That should bring some meaningful rainfall, but conditions are forecast to dry out behind the front next week. Precipitation has been below normal for a lot of the spring, but may have come at just the right time to produce good yields in a lot of areas. Satellite images over the country show overall fair crop health as wheat and canola continue to fill.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Typhoon Champi is forecast to hit Taiwan before moving into central China this weekend. That may be enough to slow it down and significantly diminish its strength. If the forecast remains on track, only small areas near the central China coast would be affected by heavy rain while most of the inland areas would avoid damage. Overall, conditions are fair for corn and soybean harvest as well as winter wheat and canola establishment.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers north Friday-Monday.

Temperatures above normal through Monday.

East: Mostly dry through Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers Monday.

Temperatures near to above normal through Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers Friday-Monday.

Temperatures above normal through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday, near normal Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday-Saturday. Temperatures near normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Saturday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures near normal through Saturday, below normal Sunday-Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Spotty showers through Saturday. Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday, above normal north and below normal south Sunday, near to below normal Monday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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